Well... it turns out that weeks after my warning... The Standard has finally figured out that scams are a-happening...
http://www.eastandard.net/editorial/InsidePage.php?id=1144011576&cid=16&
And that too in the editorial...
Sunday, April 19, 2009
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
Subsidised Fertiliser Scams - I told you
As predicted by yours truly...
Fertiliser Scams Coming Soon
Fertiliser Scams Coming Soon
Subsidies do NOT work in Kenya... they are just a way for the politically-connected to scam taxpayers....
http://www.eastandard.net/editorial/InsidePage.php?id=1144011576&cid=16&
And this is the tip of the iceberg...
And this is the tip of the iceberg...
Anglo-Leasing & amos wako
I believe that many of the senior politicians in the kibaki & moi governments benefitted from anglo-fleecing contracts.
Let us start with amos wako who approved these contracts. And now refuses to follow up on the cases filed against the anglo-fleecing folks. Why? Coz (IMHO) he is a beneficiary.
Then kibz... who refused to stop the scam... kibz refusal to halt anglo-fleecing scam in its tracks is the primary cause of his unpopularity today.
Had kibz (did he benefit from anglo-fleecing?) kept his deal about zero tolerance to corruption, he would have beaten raila fair & square during the 2007 polls...
Sunday, April 12, 2009
Somali pirates killed - Good riddance!
As I thought... the Americans would launch a Special Ops to rescue the American captain captured by the somali pirates...
Well... the GOOD NEWS... the SOFs (Special Ops Forces) killed 3 somali pirates & captured 1 (why not kill him as well?) AND rescued Captain Richard Phillips.
Good riddance!
Saturday, April 11, 2009
Kill the Somali Pirates
The French mounted a rescue attempt on the "The Tanit" but lost a French hostage. The French in good form killed two pirates. The Indian Navy also destroyed a somali pirate boat killing a few somali pirates.
The rest of the world needs to get in line. The Germans capture pirates. What a waste of time. The USA has not mounted any attacks on the somalis. The Germans are constrained by some silly notion of not being the aggressor. The USA is haunted by the "Blackhawk Down" incident as well as Obama's obsession/need to improve relations with the muslim world. Obama was filmed bowing down to the saudi king!
My opinion?
Well, Kenya is affected in many ways by somali piracy. We lose tourists (cruise ships), higher import costs for oil, etc. These pirates also provide bases for al-qaeda as well as drug smuggling into Kenya.
I think the Amercians, Brits, Indians, Chinese, etc should BOMB the somalis back to the ice age. A co-ordinated attack on all major ports/bases should cripple the somali pirates. A second attack should be on any somali boat or mothership.
Yes, yes, yes... some civilians will be hurt but let's face it... these civilians are the support staff for the pirates. I would rather have a safer Kenya then worry about some dead somalis.
The rest of the world needs to get in line. The Germans capture pirates. What a waste of time. The USA has not mounted any attacks on the somalis. The Germans are constrained by some silly notion of not being the aggressor. The USA is haunted by the "Blackhawk Down" incident as well as Obama's obsession/need to improve relations with the muslim world. Obama was filmed bowing down to the saudi king!
My opinion?
Well, Kenya is affected in many ways by somali piracy. We lose tourists (cruise ships), higher import costs for oil, etc. These pirates also provide bases for al-qaeda as well as drug smuggling into Kenya.
I think the Amercians, Brits, Indians, Chinese, etc should BOMB the somalis back to the ice age. A co-ordinated attack on all major ports/bases should cripple the somali pirates. A second attack should be on any somali boat or mothership.
Yes, yes, yes... some civilians will be hurt but let's face it... these civilians are the support staff for the pirates. I would rather have a safer Kenya then worry about some dead somalis.
Friday, April 10, 2009
Obama bows before king abdullah
Obama bows down before king abdullah of saudi arabia...
Ouch! This is going to hurt Obama's reputation as the leader of the free world when you consider that saudi arabians are well not 'free'.
So what do you think?
http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2009/04/obama_bows_down_to_saudi_king.html
http://www.jihadwatch.org/archives/025498.php
http://www.suntimes.com/news/politics/obama/1518581,w-obama-saudi-king-bow040809.article
http://www.suntimes.com/news/huntley/1520326,CST-EDT-hunt10.article
Possible Explanations:
Ouch! This is going to hurt Obama's reputation as the leader of the free world when you consider that saudi arabians are well not 'free'.
So what do you think?
http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2009/04/obama_bows_down_to_saudi_king.html
http://www.jihadwatch.org/archives/025498.php
http://www.suntimes.com/news/politics/obama/1518581,w-obama-saudi-king-bow040809.article
http://www.suntimes.com/news/huntley/1520326,CST-EDT-hunt10.article
Possible Explanations:
- “I wasn’t bowing . . . I was ducking in case someone threw a shoe.”
- "Oops, I dropped my contact lens."
- "Keep buying our T-Bills or my goose is cooked!"
What a nightmare for the protocol officers esp if a king/chief of some rinky-dink kingdom expects the same treatment/reverence!
Thursday, April 09, 2009
Safaricom enters the Gambling business
SafCon in its own sneaky fashion introduced the "Lipua Mamilioni" compaign which claims you can win Kes 1 million a day.
In very small print... to enter... you send an sms that costs 3.50 to SafCon. 1 sms per entry.
So shouldn't this 'promotion' be labelled as gambling?
Where is the CCK?
Where is the Betting & Gambling Licensing Board?
Tuesday, April 07, 2009
Kenol Share Price Shenanigans
****
On 6 April 2009, there was a block trade of 1.4 million Kenol shares done 'across the books' by Dyer & Blair at 30/- on the prompt board. I believe the seller got a raw deal. This was an outlier trade yet it was used to calculate the Volume Weighted Average Price which was 30/- at the end of trading.
The prior closing price was 45/-. And the results for the year ended 31 Dec 2008 were decent (EPS of 6.66) & included a dividend of Kes 3.50. On the normal board there were bids at 49/- with few sellers.
On 7 April 2009, there is demand for 392,000 shares at 33/- (10% above the VWAP of 6 April 2009) but no sellers.
The problem is that liquidity in this counter has been 'killed'. Sellers (unless desperate) will not sell at prices below 45 (IMHO). The rules on the NSE only allow for a price increase if there is a trade. So until someone sells shares at the lower price thus short-changing themselves... the price will remain at below the market-price until the shares go ex-dividend.
Solution:
- NSE needs to exclude 'outlier' trades when calculating VWAP. Or at least the opening trading prices.
- In the event of slow/dead trading due to bid/offer mis-matches, allow for an auction that brings the price to a level that allows for normal trading.
In Kenol's case, I am sure there are buyers willing to pay higher prices (than the bid of 33/- allowed) but they are stuck at 33/-. There were buyers willing to pay 49.25 on Monday (6 Apr 2009) after the results were disseminated.
My Opinion - I may be wrong: I think the buyer may have been D&B or an affiliate. The CDSC takes 2 days or so to credit the account of the Buyer. The Buyer will then push up the price to the 'realistic' level & then start selling the shares... Sigh... to be a broker in the know...
On 6 April 2009, there was a block trade of 1.4 million Kenol shares done 'across the books' by Dyer & Blair at 30/- on the prompt board. I believe the seller got a raw deal. This was an outlier trade yet it was used to calculate the Volume Weighted Average Price which was 30/- at the end of trading.
The prior closing price was 45/-. And the results for the year ended 31 Dec 2008 were decent (EPS of 6.66) & included a dividend of Kes 3.50. On the normal board there were bids at 49/- with few sellers.
On 7 April 2009, there is demand for 392,000 shares at 33/- (10% above the VWAP of 6 April 2009) but no sellers.
The problem is that liquidity in this counter has been 'killed'. Sellers (unless desperate) will not sell at prices below 45 (IMHO). The rules on the NSE only allow for a price increase if there is a trade. So until someone sells shares at the lower price thus short-changing themselves... the price will remain at below the market-price until the shares go ex-dividend.
Solution:
- NSE needs to exclude 'outlier' trades when calculating VWAP. Or at least the opening trading prices.
- In the event of slow/dead trading due to bid/offer mis-matches, allow for an auction that brings the price to a level that allows for normal trading.
In Kenol's case, I am sure there are buyers willing to pay higher prices (than the bid of 33/- allowed) but they are stuck at 33/-. There were buyers willing to pay 49.25 on Monday (6 Apr 2009) after the results were disseminated.
My Opinion - I may be wrong: I think the buyer may have been D&B or an affiliate. The CDSC takes 2 days or so to credit the account of the Buyer. The Buyer will then push up the price to the 'realistic' level & then start selling the shares... Sigh... to be a broker in the know...
Sunday, April 05, 2009
Price-fixing & manipulation at the NSE - Idiots
***
What idiocy by the NSE.
The NSE wants the stockbroker licenses valued at a minimum of Kes 251mn. This is silly at best & perhaps criminal.
The NSE (or any stock exchange) is founded on the basis of PRICE DISCOVERY. Willing buyer, willing seller. So doesn't this go against their own credo... So why not just 'fix' prices on the stock exchange as well? After all... who cares about the 'willing buyer, willing seller' concept?
The Kes 251mn is based on what Renaissance paid for the 'clean' thuo license. Well... this was in 2007, when NSE was booming. Not in 2009 when brokers are collapsing. Nyaga & Discount collapsed in 2008 & 2009. Bob Mathews survived coz of Co-op Bank.
(If I had Kes 251mn, I would rather put it in the Infrastructure Bond at 13.5% Nett (Kes 30mn or so). No management hassles, no fraud, no employees, no need for capex, no working capital.
What idiocy by the NSE.
The NSE wants the stockbroker licenses valued at a minimum of Kes 251mn. This is silly at best & perhaps criminal.
The NSE (or any stock exchange) is founded on the basis of PRICE DISCOVERY. Willing buyer, willing seller. So doesn't this go against their own credo... So why not just 'fix' prices on the stock exchange as well? After all... who cares about the 'willing buyer, willing seller' concept?
The Kes 251mn is based on what Renaissance paid for the 'clean' thuo license. Well... this was in 2007, when NSE was booming. Not in 2009 when brokers are collapsing. Nyaga & Discount collapsed in 2008 & 2009. Bob Mathews survived coz of Co-op Bank.
(If I had Kes 251mn, I would rather put it in the Infrastructure Bond at 13.5% Nett (Kes 30mn or so). No management hassles, no fraud, no employees, no need for capex, no working capital.
Saturday, April 04, 2009
JKIA reminds you of _________?
****
BusinessWeek has an interesting article how (major) airports reflect the country at large.
So what does JKIA remind you of?
I think JKIA is a little like River Road... bustling but seedy. Folks sleeping on the sidewalks. Dirty. Multiple dukas on either side of the 'walkway/road'. Il-mannered staff. Unattended desks. Matatu stand.
BusinessWeek has an interesting article how (major) airports reflect the country at large.
So what does JKIA remind you of?
I think JKIA is a little like River Road... bustling but seedy. Folks sleeping on the sidewalks. Dirty. Multiple dukas on either side of the 'walkway/road'. Il-mannered staff. Unattended desks. Matatu stand.
Friday, April 03, 2009
muhoho-ho-ho (corrupt? inept? Or both?)back at KAA
Well, I guess it helps to be uhuru kenyatta's (Finance Minister & Deputy PM) uncle as well as a buddy who speaks the same language as kibz (Kenya's prez).
Yes, the reviled, corrupt & inept george muhoho is back at KAA in spite of all the accusations of incompetence. It seems he might have firm instructions to wrap up - and collect the cash on - all the funny deals within the next 12 months. Before others get wise to the 'deals' especially the long-dated land leases. Yep, sell out Kenya. Quicker the better. After all 2012 is not that far away!!!
muhoho & friends forget - or do not care - that JKIA could be the real hub of Africa. That Nairobi could be a thriving 'shopping' destination for transit passengers. That this can create thousands of well-paying jobs for Kenyans. Diversify our economy. Enrich all Kenyans.
No... All that is NOT relevant because quick cash for 'personal' use can be made by entering into opaque deals with 'unknown' or connected firms. Allocate land to unknown foreign airlines (OneJetOne) & developers (the so-called Qatari based Afro-Asian Investment Company) while starving locally-grown Kenyan airlines of growth opportunities.
http://www.nation.co.ke/News/-/1056/556420/-/u3r8h1/-/index.html
Anyone out there who thinks all is above board here?
Yes, the reviled, corrupt & inept george muhoho is back at KAA in spite of all the accusations of incompetence. It seems he might have firm instructions to wrap up - and collect the cash on - all the funny deals within the next 12 months. Before others get wise to the 'deals' especially the long-dated land leases. Yep, sell out Kenya. Quicker the better. After all 2012 is not that far away!!!
muhoho & friends forget - or do not care - that JKIA could be the real hub of Africa. That Nairobi could be a thriving 'shopping' destination for transit passengers. That this can create thousands of well-paying jobs for Kenyans. Diversify our economy. Enrich all Kenyans.
No... All that is NOT relevant because quick cash for 'personal' use can be made by entering into opaque deals with 'unknown' or connected firms. Allocate land to unknown foreign airlines (OneJetOne) & developers (the so-called Qatari based Afro-Asian Investment Company) while starving locally-grown Kenyan airlines of growth opportunities.
http://www.nation.co.ke/News/-/1056/556420/-/u3r8h1/-/index.html
Anyone out there who thinks all is above board here?
Thursday, April 02, 2009
I&M Bank has a very profitable 2008 - but 2009?
This is for MainaT (http://mjengakenya.blogspot.com)
For those who wonder about I&M Bank & the NSE... well, it turns out that City Trust Ltd (AIMS on the NSE) owns 8.93% of I&M Bank. Talk of a diamond in the rough.
Anyway, a lot of this has been filched (erm, borrowed) from the I&M Bank Press Release on 31st March 2009.
On a personal note... I think the bank is a great bank for those who want real customer service. Not the cheapest (but reasonable vis-a-vis other Kenyan banks) bank but great staff who work with their customers. I doubt they will grow to be a 'big bank' but that does not seem to be their aim. Niche banking.
"Following the acquisition of 50% of Bank One Ltd., Mauritius, I&M Bank Consolidated Group Accounts have been published for the first time, reflecting group asset size of Kshs 42.8 billion which depicts a 46% increase in the Group’s assets.
The Bank has increased its customer advances portfolio by Kshs 6.67 billion reflecting a growth of 35% over the year. On customer deposits, the Bank’s portfolio has grown by Kshs 4.73 billion (20% growth).
Profit Before Taxes are at Kshs 1.62 billion, which surpasses its 2007 bottom-line performance by 25%.
Significantly contributing to this profitability is the efficiency ratio (operating expenses /total income) of the Bank which, at 44.4%, is impressive by international standards. The Bank won the ‘Most Efficient Bank’ award in the Banking Survey Awards 2008 for the second year running.
During the year 2008, I&M Bank successfully issued Kshs 600 million floating rate notes, thus bolstering the Tier II capital of the Bank. The Bank also received a Kshs 537 million long term foreign currency line of credit from PROPARCO, the French Development Financial Institution. PROPARCO is a shareholder of the Bank.
I&M Bank continued its strategy of technology driven product innovation with the introduction of two new Visa pre-paid card products and expansion of its ATM network. It increased its footprint in Kenya by opening two new branches in Nairobi’s Wilson Airport and Ongata Rongai. During the year, the Bank also upgraded its core banking software to the state-of-art Finacle system.
I&M Bank has also recently expanded its Board of Directors with the induction of three new eminent independent directors, Mr Evans Kidero, Mr. Mugo Kibati and Mr. M. Soundrarajan."
Comments/Opinions
1) All 3 new directors are/were MDs/CEOs of publicly listed firms. Kidero - current MD of Mumias Sugar. Kibati - former CEO of EA Cables. Soundarajan - former MD of CFC Bank
2) So is I&M Bank thinking of a listing?
3) PROPARCO has given a huge loan to Mumias for the co-generation plant. Could Kidero be a representative of PROPARCO?
4) They took a huge NPL charge in 4Q 2008 (vs 3Q 2008 or 4Q 2007). Conservative or a ticking bomb?
(My understanding of NPLs is that the loans are downgraded i.e. not 'bad loans' but potentially bad. With time the loans can be restructured or recovered through sales of assets/collateral).
5) Dividend payout of 398mn (36% - payout ratio). Wow, quite an increase on FY 2007's dividend but doesn't make sense coz they raised Kes 600mn about 5 months ago in a Rights Issue. Why go through all the hassle of raising Kes 600mn then pay out 400mn a few months later?
For those who wonder about I&M Bank & the NSE... well, it turns out that City Trust Ltd (AIMS on the NSE) owns 8.93% of I&M Bank. Talk of a diamond in the rough.
Anyway, a lot of this has been filched (erm, borrowed) from the I&M Bank Press Release on 31st March 2009.
On a personal note... I think the bank is a great bank for those who want real customer service. Not the cheapest (but reasonable vis-a-vis other Kenyan banks) bank but great staff who work with their customers. I doubt they will grow to be a 'big bank' but that does not seem to be their aim. Niche banking.
"Following the acquisition of 50% of Bank One Ltd., Mauritius, I&M Bank Consolidated Group Accounts have been published for the first time, reflecting group asset size of Kshs 42.8 billion which depicts a 46% increase in the Group’s assets.
The Bank has increased its customer advances portfolio by Kshs 6.67 billion reflecting a growth of 35% over the year. On customer deposits, the Bank’s portfolio has grown by Kshs 4.73 billion (20% growth).
Profit Before Taxes are at Kshs 1.62 billion, which surpasses its 2007 bottom-line performance by 25%.
Significantly contributing to this profitability is the efficiency ratio (operating expenses /total income) of the Bank which, at 44.4%, is impressive by international standards. The Bank won the ‘Most Efficient Bank’ award in the Banking Survey Awards 2008 for the second year running.
During the year 2008, I&M Bank successfully issued Kshs 600 million floating rate notes, thus bolstering the Tier II capital of the Bank. The Bank also received a Kshs 537 million long term foreign currency line of credit from PROPARCO, the French Development Financial Institution. PROPARCO is a shareholder of the Bank.
I&M Bank continued its strategy of technology driven product innovation with the introduction of two new Visa pre-paid card products and expansion of its ATM network. It increased its footprint in Kenya by opening two new branches in Nairobi’s Wilson Airport and Ongata Rongai. During the year, the Bank also upgraded its core banking software to the state-of-art Finacle system.
I&M Bank has also recently expanded its Board of Directors with the induction of three new eminent independent directors, Mr Evans Kidero, Mr. Mugo Kibati and Mr. M. Soundrarajan."
Comments/Opinions
1) All 3 new directors are/were MDs/CEOs of publicly listed firms. Kidero - current MD of Mumias Sugar. Kibati - former CEO of EA Cables. Soundarajan - former MD of CFC Bank
2) So is I&M Bank thinking of a listing?
3) PROPARCO has given a huge loan to Mumias for the co-generation plant. Could Kidero be a representative of PROPARCO?
4) They took a huge NPL charge in 4Q 2008 (vs 3Q 2008 or 4Q 2007). Conservative or a ticking bomb?
(My understanding of NPLs is that the loans are downgraded i.e. not 'bad loans' but potentially bad. With time the loans can be restructured or recovered through sales of assets/collateral).
5) Dividend payout of 398mn (36% - payout ratio). Wow, quite an increase on FY 2007's dividend but doesn't make sense coz they raised Kes 600mn about 5 months ago in a Rights Issue. Why go through all the hassle of raising Kes 600mn then pay out 400mn a few months later?
Wednesday, April 01, 2009
Headlines We Would Love To See - April Fool's Day
***I am cleaning up the post but enjoy... .
kibaki shows leadership mettle
. Capital Markets Authority to put in effective measures to combat fraud on the NSE
Artur Brothers Consulting appointed to train JKIA's security personnel. (jke is a mean, mean man)
. NSE Stockbrokers swear they will NEVER scam investors of their hard-earned money
. prof ndungu (CBK) claims Kenya's economy is solid as a rock - (Not) April Fool's Day coz he actually means it!
. bonny khalwale vows not to act for the cameras while in parliament
. ka-loser (kalonzo) admits he is not God's gift to Kenya
. kibaki fires corrupt & inept ministers
. mutua tells the truth
. Kenya Police Force Will PROTECT innocent people
. lucy accepts wambui as part of the family - (well... when Hell freezes over)
. Attorney General (wako) will prosecute a corruption case CONCLUSIVELY
. lucy accepts wambui as part of the family
. Kenya's parliament bans tribal/racial politics - April Fool's Day21 minutes ago from web
. Kenya to have zero deaths in the 2012 elections - April Fool's Day (yeah, I am a pessimist)
. Kenyatta University students take a vow they will NOT stone innocent motorists
. Kenyatta University students take a vow they will stone innocent motorists - (Not) April Fool's Day
. Conclusive Land Reform in place in Kenya
. kenyatta family to return land jomo 'inadvertently' stole
. MPs agree to take salary cut in sympathy with Kenyans' suffering
. george muhoho signs up as a kamikaze pilot
. moi admits his presidency was a failure
. Kenya Pipeline Company guarantees there will be no more fuel shortages
. Kenya's cabinet to commit hara-kiri (Oh, please say this is so... but April Fool's Day)
. lucy kibaki to take vow of silence
. kibaki shows leadership by paying taxes
. murungi to resign over oil scandal
Coldtusker to stop being a thorn in KAA's + KPC's + GoK's side (Well... Definitely an April Fool's Day joke)
kibaki shows leadership mettle
. Capital Markets Authority to put in effective measures to combat fraud on the NSE
Artur Brothers Consulting appointed to train JKIA's security personnel. (jke is a mean, mean man)
. NSE Stockbrokers swear they will NEVER scam investors of their hard-earned money
. prof ndungu (CBK) claims Kenya's economy is solid as a rock - (Not) April Fool's Day coz he actually means it!
. bonny khalwale vows not to act for the cameras while in parliament
. ka-loser (kalonzo) admits he is not God's gift to Kenya
. kibaki fires corrupt & inept ministers
. mutua tells the truth
. Kenya Police Force Will PROTECT innocent people
. lucy accepts wambui as part of the family - (well... when Hell freezes over)
. Attorney General (wako) will prosecute a corruption case CONCLUSIVELY
. lucy accepts wambui as part of the family
. Kenya's parliament bans tribal/racial politics - April Fool's Day21 minutes ago from web
. Kenya to have zero deaths in the 2012 elections - April Fool's Day (yeah, I am a pessimist)
. Kenyatta University students take a vow they will NOT stone innocent motorists
. Kenyatta University students take a vow they will stone innocent motorists - (Not) April Fool's Day
. Conclusive Land Reform in place in Kenya
. kenyatta family to return land jomo 'inadvertently' stole
. MPs agree to take salary cut in sympathy with Kenyans' suffering
. george muhoho signs up as a kamikaze pilot
. moi admits his presidency was a failure
. Kenya Pipeline Company guarantees there will be no more fuel shortages
. Kenya's cabinet to commit hara-kiri (Oh, please say this is so... but April Fool's Day)
. lucy kibaki to take vow of silence
. kibaki shows leadership by paying taxes
. murungi to resign over oil scandal
Coldtusker to stop being a thorn in KAA's + KPC's + GoK's side (Well... Definitely an April Fool's Day joke)
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