Showing posts with label Review. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Review. Show all posts

Tuesday, June 23, 2009

Olympia Capital Holdings Ltd - Cautionary Statement

OLYMPIA CAPITAL HOLDINGS LIMITED

CAUTIONARY STATEMENT

Olympia Capital Holdings Limited (OCHL) owns 51% of Olympia Capital Corporation Limited (OCC), a company listed on the Botswana Stock Exchange. In December 2006, OCC purchased 74% of Plush Products (pty) Limited (Plush).

For the fnancial periods ended December 2006, February 2008 and February 2009, Plush did not contributed positively to the bottom line of the group. From September 2008, following the slipping of the South African economy into a recession, we saw a signifcant drop in our sales that made the company go into a loss making situation.

We believe in the products and the market, but not the model to market that we have used to date. A decision has been made to close the company, sell the assets to meet our obligations and consider re-entering the market with a leaner model.

The closure of Plush will not have any negative effect on the operational group proftability, however we will only tell with time the effect that the loss of the actual investment will have on our group balance sheet.

Michael Matu

Chief Executive

23rd June 2009


Many folks have been asking about Olympia Capital Holdings (Kenya). The shares' trading was suspended on Monday at 11am but resumed trading on Tuesday after the statement was released. We will have to wait for the FY 2008-9 results expected by 30 June 2009.


The conventional wisdom in financial markets is that the longer the delay in announcing results, the worse they are.

[KQ released their 2008-9 results 1 week later than usual. Well, there was a Kes 7.5bn charge to profits relating to hedging.]


It is highly likely that OCHL will have to write off the ENTIRE equity injection into Plush-Yokota. And there is a chance that the profitable units might suffer as well from the cash drain or 'connection'. Nevertheless, OCHL's acquisition of Plush has set Olympia back many years.


That said, Plush has NEVER contributed to the bottomline for OCC (Botswana). So this action will stop the cash outflows for now.

Sunday, April 19, 2009

Fertiliser Scams - Follow the blogger

Well... it turns out that weeks after my warning... The Standard has finally figured out that scams are a-happening...

http://www.eastandard.net/editorial/InsidePage.php?id=1144011576&cid=16&

And that too in the editorial...

Friday, April 10, 2009

Obama bows before king abdullah

Obama bows down before king abdullah of saudi arabia...

Ouch! This is going to hurt Obama's reputation as the leader of the free world when you consider that saudi arabians are well not 'free'.

So what do you think?

http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2009/04/obama_bows_down_to_saudi_king.html

http://www.jihadwatch.org/archives/025498.php

http://www.suntimes.com/news/politics/obama/1518581,w-obama-saudi-king-bow040809.article

http://www.suntimes.com/news/huntley/1520326,CST-EDT-hunt10.article

Possible Explanations:
  • “I wasn’t bowing . . . I was ducking in case someone threw a shoe.”
  • "Oops, I dropped my contact lens."
  • "Keep buying our T-Bills or my goose is cooked!"
What a nightmare for the protocol officers esp if a king/chief of some rinky-dink kingdom expects the same treatment/reverence!

Thursday, April 09, 2009

Safaricom enters the Gambling business

SafCon in its own sneaky fashion introduced the "Lipua Mamilioni" compaign which claims you can win Kes 1 million a day.

In very small print... to enter... you send an sms that costs 3.50 to SafCon. 1 sms per entry.

So shouldn't this 'promotion' be labelled as gambling?
Where is the CCK?
Where is the Betting & Gambling Licensing Board?

Tuesday, April 07, 2009

Kenol Share Price Shenanigans

****

On 6 April 2009, there was a block trade of 1.4 million Kenol shares done 'across the books' by Dyer & Blair at 30/- on the prompt board. I believe the seller got a raw deal. This was an outlier trade yet it was used to calculate the Volume Weighted Average Price which was 30/- at the end of trading.

The prior closing price was 45/-. And the results for the year ended 31 Dec 2008 were decent (EPS of 6.66) & included a dividend of Kes 3.50. On the normal board there were bids at 49/- with few sellers.

On 7 April 2009, there is demand for 392,000 shares at 33/- (10% above the VWAP of 6 April 2009) but no sellers.

The problem is that liquidity in this counter has been 'killed'. Sellers (unless desperate) will not sell at prices below 45 (IMHO). The rules on the NSE only allow for a price increase if there is a trade. So until someone sells shares at the lower price thus short-changing themselves... the price will remain at below the market-price until the shares go ex-dividend.

Solution:

- NSE needs to exclude 'outlier' trades when calculating VWAP. Or at least the opening trading prices.
- In the event of slow/dead trading due to bid/offer mis-matches, allow for an auction that brings the price to a level that allows for normal trading.

In Kenol's case, I am sure there are buyers willing to pay higher prices (than the bid of 33/- allowed) but they are stuck at 33/-. There were buyers willing to pay 49.25 on Monday (6 Apr 2009) after the results were disseminated.

My Opinion - I may be wrong: I think the buyer may have been D&B or an affiliate. The CDSC takes 2 days or so to credit the account of the Buyer. The Buyer will then push up the price to the 'realistic' level & then start selling the shares... Sigh... to be a broker in the know...

Sunday, April 05, 2009

Price-fixing & manipulation at the NSE - Idiots

***
What idiocy by the NSE.

The NSE wants the stockbroker licenses valued at a minimum of Kes 251mn. This is silly at best & perhaps criminal.

The NSE (or any stock exchange) is founded on the basis of PRICE DISCOVERY. Willing buyer, willing seller. So doesn't this go against their own credo... So why not just 'fix' prices on the stock exchange as well? After all... who cares about the 'willing buyer, willing seller' concept?

The Kes 251mn is based on what Renaissance paid for the 'clean' thuo license. Well... this was in 2007, when NSE was booming. Not in 2009 when brokers are collapsing. Nyaga & Discount collapsed in 2008 & 2009. Bob Mathews survived coz of Co-op Bank.

(If I had Kes 251mn, I would rather put it in the Infrastructure Bond at 13.5% Nett (Kes 30mn or so). No management hassles, no fraud, no employees, no need for capex, no working capital.

Friday, March 27, 2009

Kenyan Restaurants are (sometimes) their worst enemies

Kenya is hurting. Kenyan consumers are hurting. Kenyan exporters are hurting. Kenyan businesses are hurting.

I do not understand Kenyan businesses... they refuse to cater to the consumer.

Whereas inflation (higher wages, higher fuel costs, higher taxes) is a problem for businesses, Kenyan consumers' discretionary spending power is down - substantially - but the businesses keep on raising prices... and that will continue reducing consumption OR drives consumers to substitutes.

I have been a regular at various mid-priced restaurants & food courts around Nairobi... and everything I usually order was up in price since late 2008.

Fresh Juices: From 120 to 150 (25%) - I substitute juices for sodas but...
Sugarcane Juice: 60 to 70 (17%)
Chips: 120 to 150 (25%) - since I am cutting down on greasy foods this doesn't hurt me much
Bhajias: 120 to 150 (25%) - since I am cutting down on greasy foods this doesn't hurt me much
Sodas: 40 to 50 (25%) - On the way out for me
Ice-cream: 90 to 110 (22%)
Beer: 100/120 to 120/150 (20-25%) - At this rate I will be a teetotaler
Smallish samosas: 6 for 100/- (a plate) to 3 for 100/- (50%)

Perhaps... it is time for Kenyans (Nairobians) to stop frequenting these restaurants!

I would rather meet up with friends at an outdoor spot OR at someone's house (with a nice garden), buy beer & sodas from Nakumatt (or have a keg delivered), cook/bbq at home!!! Buy juices in bulk or packs from a supermarket. Even hire a cook or self-cook and since cleaning up is a chore... so hire a maid/servant for a day or evening... and the overall cost is 50% of the restaurant bill. If not less.

I know a group/chama that has built a banda at one of the member's 'backyard' and they meet every so often. They share the cost (& can each invite one other family) by 'charging' an annual fee as well as costs per get-together. Granted the banda is free but it is not fancy... a few chairs, tables & sofas... they even hire extra security on the day. And the cooking is self-cooking though they hire a few folks to clean, cut & dice the 'raw' food...

They have all the fun at 1/2 the cost...

Tuesday, March 17, 2009

KQ protests allocation of Embakasi airport

KQ protests the corruption & ineptness of KAA (& muhoho-ho-ho) in the matter of the allocation of the Embakasi airport to OnejetOne.

I highlighted the corruption & ineptness of the KAA earlier.

Naikuni of KQ told NTV that the 'expansion' at the airport is 4 years behind schedule. KQ's aircraft are parked all over since JKIA's parking aprons are not ready for use.

Poor KQ. They have been trying to get KAA to expand JKIA since 2002 when they expected a huge jump in passenger numbers!

According to NTV, KQ spends almost KShs 100,000,000 a month at the Panari Hotel - the only hotel that by-passes the traffic prone Uhuru Highway - to accommodate passengers whose flights have been cancelled or delayed.

BTW... I have a gut feeling that muhoho-ho-ho (& family/cronies) either took a cash bribe or an ownership/profit stake from the developers of the hotel-retail complex being developed at JKIA.

Friday, March 06, 2009

KQ - An Update

I spoke too soon...

My blogpost on 24 Feb 2009

KQ's share price has tumbled further since I posted the above. At 12.38 pm on 6 Mar 2009 KQ is trading at Kes 17.25 (though the trading is very thin)...

Did I miss anything on my blog post that accounts for the additional decline?

At this point I think KQ should close up shop... to protect the shareholders!

- Sell the planes while there is a market. Emirates & Ethiopian are still buying planes. Perhaps they would be interested in immediate delivery of the newer planes?

- Cancel or transfer leases of the leased planes.

- Sell the older planes to myriad African 'matatu' airlines.

- Sell the routes (if there is value to be gained) &/or landing slots to Emirates, BA, Virgin, KLM or Air Uganda.

- Cancel (or sell/transfer) all plane orders to get back the cash from down-payments/deposits.

- Use the above proceeds to pay off all debtors.

- Close offices & but sell the 'marketing machine' to another airline.

- Take the remaining cash & distribute to shareholders.

I think the above will yield enough cash to pay each shareholder more than 45/- which is far better than the current price realisation!

OR just sell the entire airline to Emirates or Qatar or AF-KLM who will get the enviable & profitable routes as well trained staff & ready to fly planes in one fell swoop at a far lower cost than a de novo set-up.

Tuesday, March 03, 2009

Kenya Pipeline Company - Bankrupt?

KPC has (or will) have lawsuits amounting to a minimum of Kes 7,000,000,000 filed against them in the next 3 months and all related to the triton case. And this does not include Kenol-Kobil's Kes 3,000,000,000 claim against KPC. Indications are that Kenol (very smart folks) will probably win at least Kes 1,000,000,000 against KPC as KPC's inefficiencies & goofs are revealed in the first group of cases.

All said and done, the Government of Kenya will have to either bail out KPC by:
  • Providing payment guarantees to the banks & other financiers (taxpayers' cost if funds not recovered from Triton/Devani/Cronies).
  • Special bonds to KCB (& other firms) similar to bonds given to NBK.
  • Sale of KPC & proceeds used to pay-off the financiers.
  • Sale of shares in KPC to the Libyans or Chinese or Iranians.

Solution

Mine is simple & elegant (IMHO) based Information as I understand it.

1) Negotiate an out-of-court settlement as to who owes who what. KPC - under the Collateral Management Agreement - is liable to the financiers & Oil Marketers to store, safeguard & deliver the fuel products. A negotiated settlement is cheaper & faster than a protracted court case. It is also less distracting for KCB & KPC so they can concentrate on the business not lawsuits. This settlement shows good faith to foreign financiers as to the will to sort out the problem.

IMMEDIATE ACTION: Sack all 'decision-makers' at KPC & Ministry of Energy (yes, including kiraitu murungi). Then arrest them, assemble evidence & take them to court. (This is under the ideal situation but corruption runs rife in the Kenyan government & unlikely to happen).

IMMEDIATE ACTION: KCB (& GoK) should go after yagnesh devani & his cohorts. All of triton's (& devani's) assets in Kenya should be sold asap (TRANSPARENTLY) to recover as much as possible. Of course, if GoK pays KCB as shown above then the stations/properties belong to GoK.

2a) KPC should be fairly valued without the Triton liabilities.

2b) KCB's Kes 2bn loan should be converted into a long-term loan to KPC secured by KPC's assets.

2c) KCB should undertake to pay off the other financiers but get KPC shares in exchange for the undertaking. A Repurchase Agreement (repo agreement) would allow GoK to buy the shares back. This would be an asset (unlisted shares) for KCB. GoK may remain a shareholder depending on the extent of the assets/liabilities & intrinsic value of KPC.

2d) CBK might be involved since the above actions will require a few 'exception' for KCB considering asset ownership & lending to a single entity. These are trying times & require out of the box solutions.

2e) KCB can either pay off the other financiers - of course, this would be negotiated - or negotiate the payables as a 'loan from other finance institutions'. It is a liability for KCB but 'safer' for the financiers.

2f) KCB & the other financers would drop the lawsuits against KPC.

3) KCB should be allowed to package & sell the income+assets from KPC to other banks or investors but under the repo agreement. Essentially, it is a syndicated loan.

4a) KCB would hire competent managers to run KPC as a private firm.

4b) In the meantime, GoK (in conjunction with KCB) should 'prep' KPC for eventual privatisation. This means clean out the rot. Fire inefficient or unqualified staff. Enact better policies, regulations & laws. Complete the expansion plans. Complete the pipeline capacity enhancement.

5) Once KPC is stabilised, GoK should arrange for the sale of shares KCB 'owns' in KPC (at least 75%) to the Kenyan public through the NSE, to enable KCB recover its cash. After KCB has been repaid all its dues (under the repo agreement) by GoK, the balance of shares, if any, would revert to GoK.

6a) I think Kenol has a good case against KPC. Therefore, KPC/GoK should settle with Kenol to prevent any disruption in the oil market as well as provide confidence to foreign financiers.

6b) Sell triton's assets (TRANSPARENTLY) to pay off Kenol. Any outstanding balance owned to Kenol above & beyond that should be provided as 'tax credits' i.e. Kenol can use the tax credit to offset duties/taxes owed to GoK.

6c) Other firms that will accept tax credits include KCB, Total Oil & Shell Kenya. Of course, this all means lower (net) tax receipts for the GoK in the short-run but creates certainty to drive more business activity.

Friday, February 20, 2009

Fertilizer Imports have started - Scams come next

The Fertilizer scam to start soon as government imports trickle in...

kibaki said - I paraphrase - 'Do not look for others to blame for the scams'. Shouldn't he have said 'The buck stops with me'?

Anyway, as I predicted in my earlier blogpost, it is a matter of time.

Thursday, February 19, 2009

Sameer Africa posts better results - Not really

Year End 31 Dec.

Sales down 13% yoy.
Gross Profit down 6% yoy.

Other Operating Profit up 197% yoy. Ahhh... no details on what this is. Sale of assets?

PAT up by 26% yoy BUT see "Other Operating Profit".

Sameer Africa was affected by the PEV in 2008 & the subsequent knock-on effect on sales later in the year. Anyway, that is history.

How will 2009 be?

IMHO, it will be much tougher. Why?

- Costs of production in Kenya remains high including interest costs, electricity & transport costs.
- The depreciation of the KShs vs US$ will hurt import input costs. Imported might be pricier if imported from non-US$ countries e.g. India
- Competition from multiple brands e.g. Pirelli, Michelin, Apollo, etc

Firestone used to be the first choice for Kenyans but I think there has been a major shift since it became Yana. Nakumatt sells 5+ brands & this shows a change in preferences. Yana tyres are NOT the cheapest in the market. Yana needs to sell the 'quality' of their brand to succeed.

2010 - The business park should be reaady but I do not trust naushad merali. I wonder how much SA will benefit from the business park vs merali. I think merali will suck the majority of the profits/gains from the business park.

Anyway, let's wait for the Annual Report.

Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Coming soon to Kenya - The Grand Fertilizer Scam

I, Coldtusker, GUARANTEE that the decision by the government of Kenya to import, subsidise & distribute fertilizer will be beset by multiple scams involving one or more of the following:

A - The 'wrong' (type, grades, mixes, combinations) fertilizer will be imported/distributed to the areas.

B - Politically connected firms & individuals (e.g. jackson kibor & maize) will buy the subsidised fertilizer & sell it at higher prices.

C - In many cases the fertilizer will reach the farmers AFTER the planting season is over. Or reach them when it is not as effective/ideal.

D - Gov't will ultimately deliver fertilizer at prices higher than what private firms can. If not for subsidies, the price of government fertilizer will be higher than private firms!

E - In some cases, the fertilizer will be left to 'spoil' & will be disposed off as 'junk' or 'obsolete' or 'ineffective'.

PLEASE quote me if any if the above does not happen IF the government goes ahead with the foolhardy idea of importing & distributing fertilizer through the NCPB.

Tidbits - just for you!

Japan's Finance Minister resigns coz he appeared to be drunk at a conference. He claims it was a combination of jet lag & cold medicine.

Kenya's current FM, uhuru kenyatta, looks drunk. All the time. Just joking. I hope he does better than most of the jokers Kenya has had in the past especially the george 'goldenberg' saitoti.
We all know Kenya's former FM (guess who???) is a former drunk. Kudos to him on kicking the habit but not the lethargy.

Now for the serious part: Kenyan ministers NEVER resign for any sort of foible or corruption. Starting with paul ngei to william ruto. And so many in between!!!

African legislators are crooks. No matter where.

KPC in more trouble. Again!!! Kenol-Kobil plays tough with KPC.

BBK's group results PBT up 13% but PAT up 12.5% (EPS of 4.10), BBK is trading at a historic P/E of 10.

Monday, February 02, 2009

KQ announces profit warning

I screwed up - in my defense, I tried my darnedest to find the ACTUAL announcement but was stymied by lack of information from KQ or the NSE.

Anyway, DN posted this article that claimed KQ's profits made a HUGE jump. I was unable to confirm the real story until much later... and it turned out that the story was not as rosy! In fact, it was not rosy at all!

KQ's 3Q 2008-9 ASKs were up 7% but DN claimed it was their PBT that was up 7% over 3Q 2007-8.

I have voiced my intense displeasure at the poor business reporting by Kenya's media houses BUT unless companies provide this information directly to us through posting it on their websites, how will we ever know or compare or verify?

To my readers, sorry for the faux pas. To KQ (among other listed firms), please post this information on your websites simulatneouly with the release to the media or NSE.

Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Uganda Banking Sector

I have been following the Ugandan banking sector & though there are structural challenges, it seems there are ripe pickings - even better than Kenya but beware currency movements.

Uganda will start 'producing' oil - primarily sour, heavy & waxy (the lowest quality!) - in 2010.
Ugandans should not expect 'cheap' petrol but it will definitely help reducing the cost of heavy diesel for Ugandan industry & energy production. There are plans to build a refinery as well. Maybe even export the products to S.Sudan, Rwanda & DRC.

Since oil production has been 'privatised' I expect production to start more or less on schedule. I do not know the break-even cost for this oil BUT Uganda will have an additional source of energy except hydro at Jinja.

The Bujangali Dam being built by/under AKFED will also boost Uganda's economy. I like AKFED. They do good work in African countries by building capacity. AKFED firms include Diamond Trust, Jubilee, Nation Media & TPSEA.

KES 1 = UGX 25
USD 1 = UGX 1990

Here's a look at listed banks

Bank of Baroda (Uganda) - Unlike BoB(Kenya), they are public (20% float). They even released unaudited 2008 numbers by 16 Jan 2009. Imagine that! Anyway, they last traded at UGX 405. The 2008 EPS estimated at 37. Very conservative bank thus low NPAs & great ratios for capital adequacy. Also owns prime property in the middle of Kampala's CBD. Low 2008 PE = 11. They have never had an unprofitable year since they listed.

DFCU - Controlled by Actis (former CDC). New CEO appointed in 2008. Major scandal & losses hit DFCU in 2007. Trying to be the Equity Bank of Uganda.

Equity Bank (parent listed in Kenya)- Purchased UML with 30 branches. Rebranding to EBL. It will shake up the sector. Competitors are already on edge!

KCB (cross-listed) - They came in the market with a bang but concentration seems on cross-border business.

Stanbic Uganda - Huge over-subscription during the IPO thanks to Kenyans. Seems priced well on a P/E basis but not as entrepreneurial as DFCU nor conservative as BoBU nor aggressive as DTB. Controls a huge chunk of the market thanks to its purchase of Uganda Commercial Bank - Uganda's then largest bank. Expect severe competition from DFCU & Equity Bank for the mass market. Corporate & SME business under threat from DTB & Crane Bank. Cross-border business under pressure from DTB & KCB. Standard Chartered & Barclays (bought out Nile Bank) are also in the market.

Diamond Trust Bank (parent listed in Kenya) - SME market & aggressive. AKFED investments in Uganda will boost DTB's profile. Also aims for the corporate market.

Conclusion: Get in before its too late!

Saturday, January 17, 2009

Why would anyone take Kenyans seriously?

#1 - According to Daily Nation: "Economic secretary Geoffrey Mwau said although Kenya has not felt the effects of the global financial crisis, lack of corporate governance in shares dealings poses a great risk."

Wow... I would have never guessed! So the drop in tourists, lower prices for tea, flowers, depreciation of the KSh vs US$... wow... not a result of the GFC?

And CBK governor was claiming 7% growth for Kenya in 2008. I have not heard from him in a while. Perhaps indigestion after gorging on humble pie?

#2 - Back to donors with a begging bowl... while scams 'exposed' in the past 4 weeks account for KShs 15bn.
- 8bn for the KPC-Triton scam coz govt (aka taxpayers) will bail out KPC.
- 1bn for the NCPB maize theft/scandals.
- 6bn for 'over-billing' for the pipeline extensions/expansion/enhancement - chinese firm implicated.
- Great cartoon in the DN
- Trips to USA for Obama's inauguration
- Other junkets by politicians while in the USA

#3 - Corruption - The next frontier - Chinese & Libyan connections
I am worried about corruption in Kenya but it seems to be going a notch higher with the chinese & libyan firms. Since these firms are state controlled, you might as well give up hope on getting information from the chinese or libyans to fight the scams!

Tuesday, January 13, 2009

Weekly Citizen's take on KPC-Triton scam

This is copied from what the comments section by Anon in an earlier post. I have NOT researched the information provided but it sounds interesting. I have edited unrelated/extraneous content to shorten the post without removing/deleting any information related to the KPC-Triton scam. The entire comment can be referenced in the earlier blog posts' comment section.

A local newspaper in Kenya has named the Prime Minister Raila Odinga as being a key player to what the weekly termed as mega oil scandal involving millions of shillings.

The article incriminating Raila Odinga and his family in suspect oil deal, which also involved a cartel of wealthy Asian wheeler dealer appeared in the latest issue of the Nairobi ’s publication, the WEEKLY CITIZEN, which is one of the mushrooming alternative press, commonly called “Gutter Press”. The paper is credited for its in-depth investigative report, making it a lethal weapons to the politicians.


In a page one leading article the articles says.” Towards the end of 2008, Kenyans were forced to grapple with an unreliable supply of fuel and artificial rise in its pricing.”
On more than one occasion, the Managing Director of the National Oil Pipeline Mr George Okungu gave a widely televised interviews to reassure Kenyans that there was no fuel shortage or crisis as such in the country. But between December 28 and 29th,December 2008 most filling stations upcountry had no fuel to supply to the motorists. Workers returning from Holiday, particularly those travelling from Western Kenya back to the City got briefly stranded in Kisumu and other towns.

During the same period, a medium sized oil firm called Triton Limited, which is run by Mr Yagnes Devani and Mr Pankaj Somaia was reported to have allegedly rendered legally bankrupt, suddenly appeared in the oil trading scene.
The duo, according to CITIZEN’’s article have their roots in the lakeside Kenyan City of Kisumu and it is in Chemelil area within the Nyanza sugar belt, where the first few Triton Limited outlets were set up. What was most intriguing is that in-spite of its definite inability to source and service the largest oil order in the country, Triton Ltd, is alleged to have secured the government tender to purchase national oil supplies for a six month quota through the alleged intervention of the Prime Minister Raila Odinga, who is said to have personal and family interests in the oil industry as a major player.


Triton Ltd beat all other seasonal firms such as OilLibya{formerly Mobil} and Shell/BP.
Yagness Devani is the brother to the late Harish Devani who owned the multimillion complex, Simmers Plaza in in a Nairobi suburbs of Westlands, but alleged to have committed suicide a couples of years ago after swindling those close to former President Daniel Arap Moi billions of shillings in tenders scams supplies at the Kenyan Ports Authority {KPA}and Kenya Power and Lighting Company {KPLC}
.


“Indeed Triton Ltd had no capacity, to deliver on such a huge consignment of oil to the nation, but immediately after securing the government tender set upon sub-contracting the same to its rivals companies at a profit without any actual direct importation,”


In addition, Triton Ltd, according to the report was that oil suppliers refused to give in to the Triton’s sordid machinations, and this is what caused the brief artificial fuel shortage in Kenyan, which in turn raised the fuel prices even much higher. To compound the saga, Afri Global Ltd, a firm belonging to Raila Odinga’s elder brother Dr. Oburu Oginga MP who is the Finance Assistant Minister and which is run by Dr. Oginga’s son a pint sized fellow called Elijah Abonyo Oburu was one of the key beneficiaries.


After this scam Elijah Oburu had since bought a brand new show room Mercedez Benz limousine 350 valued at colossal amount of Kshs 24 million which he now drives around Kisumu City.


Another firm, African Oils Ltd, which belong to the Prime Minister’s son Fidel Castro Raila Odinga was also occasioned adequate favor to profiteer from the scandal, charged the paper article.
And not to be out done was the Prime Minister himself with his company Bakri Ltd, operated by one Mr. Mike Njeru who joined the lists of compliant firms that allegedly benefited from the tender pool sharing and in turn sold the same to the highest bidder!.
Raila Odinga’s younger sister Adhiambo is the managing director of the Petro Plus firm that has been involved in bulk oil sales in the high seas, a host received from Nigeria thanks to the closeness of the Prime Minister with the former ruler Gen. Olusegun Obasanjo. Libya and Southern Sudan government as donations to finance democratic pursuits in Kenya .
So entrenched is the Odinga family interests in the oil industry the players advise that it is practically impossible to do serious oil business in Kenya without roping in a family member.
At the centre of the scheme, says the paper, is Pankaj Somaia, a wheeler-dealer in the Moi regime era and alleged wanted in various countries for questioning on an array of criminal activities.”
In any oil sale scheme of the magnitude, Triton Ltd dabbed in the returns, kick-backs included run into hundreds of million of shillings.” the report says.


It is widely rumoured that Devani heavily funded last year’s 2007 general campaign for ODM team an that those who benefited by Devani earl this year were only return ing a favor.
“Indeed the grapevine has it that some senior Ministers in the grand coalition cabinet drive vehicles donated by Devani early this year. It is also an open secret that two MPs have been on Devani’s payroll ostensibly so that they extend favors for their benefactors as and when needed.” adds the paper.
Meanwhile Citizen reported that Mr. Devani himself is said to be holed up in some undisclosed destination abroad, but he keep in constant touch with the Prime Minister through one called Collins Odhiambo [formerly of Citi Bank}, and up to fortnight ago Triton Ltd, commercial director.”
Mr Odhiambo is said to be in big panic since Triton Ltd, went burst and placed under the official receivers as in the case with an array of high placed personalities in the government.
Another employee who took cover only before the take-over of Triton Ltd, is a Mr Kioko who was in charge of the firm’s operations at the KPA in the Kenyan port city of Mombasa .
Immigration Minister Gerald Otieno Kajwang’ who has also been a regular visitor in Devani’s office is together with his personal assistant{PA} is said to be working day and night to cover up five senior employees of Asian extractions who were irregularly employed by Triton Ltd over the last 10 months.

Friday, January 09, 2009

Triton - KPC alledgely in cahoots with Triton

It seems that Kenya Commercial Bank (KCB) lent $24mn to Triton to buy petroleum supplies under the OTS. The products were held by Kenya Pipeline Company (KPC) as 'custodian' for KCB's interests.

Now... it seems some corruption (or incompetence) within KPC meant the stocks were released to Triton without KCB's approval... So Triton sold the stocks... pocketed the cash... and split!!!

So KCB went to court to freeze the assets of Triton... and if KPC does not pony up the cash... then KCB will probably sue KPC...

I still can't believe that some (misguided) Kenyans believe KPC should remain 100% in government hands!

Solution: Sell the Triton stations asap to NOCK (or another buyer) through TRANSPARENT means. Pay off as many debts as possible with the proceeds. Put out an international arrest warrant for the 'owners'. Sack, arrest & charge the chaps who authorised the 'release' of the products. Seize their assets since corruption was likely in this matter.

Start the process to privatize KPC.

Thursday, January 08, 2009

Where hither the Kenya Shilling?

What do you guys/gals think where the Kenya Shilling will head versus the basket of forex currencies (USD, Yen, GBP, Euro)....

I don't understand the reason (except the 'safe haven' argument) for the strength of the US$... The US gov't (thru the Fed & Treasury & other agencies) will pump (since Aug 2008) in $1,000,000,000,000 (almost 6% of the USA's GDP) into the system by June 2009....

Whereas I do not expect inflation to be a problem since the 'extra' cash will be negated in part by:
  • lower interest rates on loans
  • lower housing costs
  • lower fuel/energy costs
  • reduced salaries (loss of jobs or no more increases)
  • discounting of merchandise/food
I still wonder if the US$ can sustain it's strength vs other currencies... of course, these guys (UK, Europe, Japan) are not much better off either!

China is a wild card... or the joker?

Please provide your thoughts... and guidance... and ideas...