KQ's 9-month 2008-9 PBT was +7% vs PY... BUT the real story is that...
KQ made 2x in 3Q (Kes 3.035bn PBT) compared to entire 1H (Kes 1.05 PBT)...
Due to the post-election violence, KQ's pax numbers were very low in 1Q (Apr-Jun 2008). The 2Q (May-Sep 2008) was merely catch-up but the after-effects still lingered.
Then came 3Q with (much) lower oil prices as well as the strong US$... but since KQ prices most tix in US$, the overall effect has been a surge in Kes profits...
KQ faces challenges in 4Q coz of the GFC but the most profitable business remains the African business... they should continue expanding in Africa even if it the destinations make losses at first... KQ should start agrressively targetting S. African markets & beat up SAA while they are down!
Oil prices should be lower than 2008 though we have seen jet fuel shortages in Kenya coz of the thieves at KPC.
BOTTOMLINE: I expect EPS of 7.50 for 2008-9. By my estimates the NAV is over 62/- So its trading at P/B of 0.4 and forward PER of 3.5... this is a steal!
And there is the Obama business... perhaps time expedite the expansion of the Kisumu airport... Obama is a-coming at some point!
Prior posts on KQ or related subjects...
http://coldtusker.blogspot.com/2008/10/kq-has-profitable-1h-2008-9.html
http://coldtusker.blogspot.com/2008/11/jkia-is-dump.html
http://coldtusker.blogspot.com/2008/11/how-kenyan-government-sabotages-success.html
Friday, January 30, 2009
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Uganda Banking Sector
I have been following the Ugandan banking sector & though there are structural challenges, it seems there are ripe pickings - even better than Kenya but beware currency movements.
Uganda will start 'producing' oil - primarily sour, heavy & waxy (the lowest quality!) - in 2010.
Ugandans should not expect 'cheap' petrol but it will definitely help reducing the cost of heavy diesel for Ugandan industry & energy production. There are plans to build a refinery as well. Maybe even export the products to S.Sudan, Rwanda & DRC.
Since oil production has been 'privatised' I expect production to start more or less on schedule. I do not know the break-even cost for this oil BUT Uganda will have an additional source of energy except hydro at Jinja.
The Bujangali Dam being built by/under AKFED will also boost Uganda's economy. I like AKFED. They do good work in African countries by building capacity. AKFED firms include Diamond Trust, Jubilee, Nation Media & TPSEA.
KES 1 = UGX 25
USD 1 = UGX 1990
Here's a look at listed banks
Bank of Baroda (Uganda) - Unlike BoB(Kenya), they are public (20% float). They even released unaudited 2008 numbers by 16 Jan 2009. Imagine that! Anyway, they last traded at UGX 405. The 2008 EPS estimated at 37. Very conservative bank thus low NPAs & great ratios for capital adequacy. Also owns prime property in the middle of Kampala's CBD. Low 2008 PE = 11. They have never had an unprofitable year since they listed.
DFCU - Controlled by Actis (former CDC). New CEO appointed in 2008. Major scandal & losses hit DFCU in 2007. Trying to be the Equity Bank of Uganda.
Equity Bank (parent listed in Kenya)- Purchased UML with 30 branches. Rebranding to EBL. It will shake up the sector. Competitors are already on edge!
KCB (cross-listed) - They came in the market with a bang but concentration seems on cross-border business.
Stanbic Uganda - Huge over-subscription during the IPO thanks to Kenyans. Seems priced well on a P/E basis but not as entrepreneurial as DFCU nor conservative as BoBU nor aggressive as DTB. Controls a huge chunk of the market thanks to its purchase of Uganda Commercial Bank - Uganda's then largest bank. Expect severe competition from DFCU & Equity Bank for the mass market. Corporate & SME business under threat from DTB & Crane Bank. Cross-border business under pressure from DTB & KCB. Standard Chartered & Barclays (bought out Nile Bank) are also in the market.
Diamond Trust Bank (parent listed in Kenya) - SME market & aggressive. AKFED investments in Uganda will boost DTB's profile. Also aims for the corporate market.
Conclusion: Get in before its too late!
Uganda will start 'producing' oil - primarily sour, heavy & waxy (the lowest quality!) - in 2010.
Ugandans should not expect 'cheap' petrol but it will definitely help reducing the cost of heavy diesel for Ugandan industry & energy production. There are plans to build a refinery as well. Maybe even export the products to S.Sudan, Rwanda & DRC.
Since oil production has been 'privatised' I expect production to start more or less on schedule. I do not know the break-even cost for this oil BUT Uganda will have an additional source of energy except hydro at Jinja.
The Bujangali Dam being built by/under AKFED will also boost Uganda's economy. I like AKFED. They do good work in African countries by building capacity. AKFED firms include Diamond Trust, Jubilee, Nation Media & TPSEA.
KES 1 = UGX 25
USD 1 = UGX 1990
Here's a look at listed banks
Bank of Baroda (Uganda) - Unlike BoB(Kenya), they are public (20% float). They even released unaudited 2008 numbers by 16 Jan 2009. Imagine that! Anyway, they last traded at UGX 405. The 2008 EPS estimated at 37. Very conservative bank thus low NPAs & great ratios for capital adequacy. Also owns prime property in the middle of Kampala's CBD. Low 2008 PE = 11. They have never had an unprofitable year since they listed.
DFCU - Controlled by Actis (former CDC). New CEO appointed in 2008. Major scandal & losses hit DFCU in 2007. Trying to be the Equity Bank of Uganda.
Equity Bank (parent listed in Kenya)- Purchased UML with 30 branches. Rebranding to EBL. It will shake up the sector. Competitors are already on edge!
KCB (cross-listed) - They came in the market with a bang but concentration seems on cross-border business.
Stanbic Uganda - Huge over-subscription during the IPO thanks to Kenyans. Seems priced well on a P/E basis but not as entrepreneurial as DFCU nor conservative as BoBU nor aggressive as DTB. Controls a huge chunk of the market thanks to its purchase of Uganda Commercial Bank - Uganda's then largest bank. Expect severe competition from DFCU & Equity Bank for the mass market. Corporate & SME business under threat from DTB & Crane Bank. Cross-border business under pressure from DTB & KCB. Standard Chartered & Barclays (bought out Nile Bank) are also in the market.
Diamond Trust Bank (parent listed in Kenya) - SME market & aggressive. AKFED investments in Uganda will boost DTB's profile. Also aims for the corporate market.
Conclusion: Get in before its too late!
Monday, January 26, 2009
Corruption at KPC continues unabated - Higher fuel prices
Kenyans will see higher fuel prices. Why?
1) Banks will not lend to many oil firms OR will do so at much higher costs.
2) Ullage allocation favoritism at KPC's KOSF.
3) Demurrage charges to add to fuel costs.
4) Government corruption unabated even after Triton collapsed. High-level corruption?
5) Inefficient government owned Oil Marketer to be favoured over others. More corruption?
1) Banks will not lend to many oil firms OR will do so at much higher costs.
2) Ullage allocation favoritism at KPC's KOSF.
3) Demurrage charges to add to fuel costs.
4) Government corruption unabated even after Triton collapsed. High-level corruption?
5) Inefficient government owned Oil Marketer to be favoured over others. More corruption?
Sunday, January 25, 2009
Discredited ECK employees to get 500 million
WTF?
kivuitu is slated to get KShs 25 million. The government claims there is no money for development or for teachers but wants to pay sam 'I cannot count' kivuitu KShs 25,000,000/-. People are dying of starvation & the govt refuses to pay farmers a fair price for their maize.
Is kibaki trying to pay off kivuitu for his silence on election irregularities?
If ECK thinks it is being shortchanged, then go to court. Do NOT pay them!
BUT what do you expect from Kenya's morally bereft politicians?
kivuitu is slated to get KShs 25 million. The government claims there is no money for development or for teachers but wants to pay sam 'I cannot count' kivuitu KShs 25,000,000/-. People are dying of starvation & the govt refuses to pay farmers a fair price for their maize.
Is kibaki trying to pay off kivuitu for his silence on election irregularities?
If ECK thinks it is being shortchanged, then go to court. Do NOT pay them!
BUT what do you expect from Kenya's morally bereft politicians?
How can the Kenyan prez and/or PM make more than the prez/PM of countries far more prosperous?
kibz makes more than Obama. The USA has an economy at least 800x larger than Kenya’s!
raila makes more than Gordon Brown. The UK’s economy is at least 100x larger than Kenya’s!
And then they go to BEG for food aid!!! If I were a donor, I would say go to hell for more aid. You draw obscene salaries & are bloody corrupt. Let your people starve coz then they may see the need to change the government!
Mega-corruption at the Central Bank of Kenya
#1 - Zain refused Money Transfer License upon refusal to bribe CBK governor & cronies
Why does the (corrupt) government of Kenya allow M-Pesa to continue operating & grow in size but the CBK does not allow Zain to launch Zap?
1) Zain refused to pay-off ndungu & his ilk. They followed in the footsteps of YU (Econet) who fought it out in court for the 3rd mobile license.
2) SafCon has powerful politicians as part one of the major shareholders (Mobitelea) who know that delaying Zain's entry will make M-Pesa the entrenched first-mover.
3) This is a government of the corrupt. No pay, no play.
If the CBK is truly concerned about M-Pesa, then they should suspend the service BUT Safaricom's M-Pesa has been given a CLEAN BILL OF HEALTH & is signing up M-Pesa dealers with CBK's tacit approval to stymie Zap when it comes in.
Other links on the Grand Rip Off
The Grand Rip Off
ndungu's role in the GRH scam
The verdict on the Grand Regency scam
The 'secret sale' of GRH
CBK sold GRH in an opaque manner
GRH was under-valued
Lies told by abuga, kimunya & ndungu in the secret sale of GRH
#2 - CBK governor complicit in selling Grand Regency Hotel to protect kibaki's promises
kibaki &/or PNU - I am told - received funds from Libya to fund his 2007 election campaign. In turn he promised to sell them Kenyan assets at a discount & without competitive bidding.
Kudos to Justice Cockar & his team for bringing the truth to light. I bet kibaki is upset that he picked Justice Cockar instead of one the corrupt judges!
Summary of the Cockar Report (from the Sunday Nation)
These assets included the GRH, Kenya Petroleum Refinery & Kenya Pipeline Company.
Well, 2/3 have been completed. Watch this space for the KPC to be sold to the Libyans.
Africa - tough place to do business for those who are not corrupt.
Why does the (corrupt) government of Kenya allow M-Pesa to continue operating & grow in size but the CBK does not allow Zain to launch Zap?
1) Zain refused to pay-off ndungu & his ilk. They followed in the footsteps of YU (Econet) who fought it out in court for the 3rd mobile license.
2) SafCon has powerful politicians as part one of the major shareholders (Mobitelea) who know that delaying Zain's entry will make M-Pesa the entrenched first-mover.
3) This is a government of the corrupt. No pay, no play.
If the CBK is truly concerned about M-Pesa, then they should suspend the service BUT Safaricom's M-Pesa has been given a CLEAN BILL OF HEALTH & is signing up M-Pesa dealers with CBK's tacit approval to stymie Zap when it comes in.
Other links on the Grand Rip Off
The Grand Rip Off
ndungu's role in the GRH scam
The verdict on the Grand Regency scam
The 'secret sale' of GRH
CBK sold GRH in an opaque manner
GRH was under-valued
Lies told by abuga, kimunya & ndungu in the secret sale of GRH
#2 - CBK governor complicit in selling Grand Regency Hotel to protect kibaki's promises
kibaki &/or PNU - I am told - received funds from Libya to fund his 2007 election campaign. In turn he promised to sell them Kenyan assets at a discount & without competitive bidding.
Kudos to Justice Cockar & his team for bringing the truth to light. I bet kibaki is upset that he picked Justice Cockar instead of one the corrupt judges!
Summary of the Cockar Report (from the Sunday Nation)
These assets included the GRH, Kenya Petroleum Refinery & Kenya Pipeline Company.
Well, 2/3 have been completed. Watch this space for the KPC to be sold to the Libyans.
Africa - tough place to do business for those who are not corrupt.
Saturday, January 24, 2009
Rwanda - The New Hope of Africa
Rwanda has introduced ELECTRONIC DRIVING PERMITS.
Ok, I think they meant driving permits with an electronic chip... anyway, Kenya has these UGLY red easily forged paper/cloth driving licenses...
Paul Kagame & Ian Khama (Botswana) are the type of leaders we want. They are young, educated, smart & clean... not corrupt.
BTW, I request we look into Paul Kagame's roots coz I think he is also a son of Kenya... therefore, eligible to run for presidential office in 2012 or sooner if you know what happens to you know who...
Am I a fool for not stealing?
I am depressed...
Since 1986, no thief/crook/politician/lawyer associated with any mega-scandal has been jailed... I do not mean those short stints put on for show for the gullible donors.
Goldenberg (50bn) - paul pattni, george saitoti, eric kotut, james kanyotu, gideon moi, daniel moi, amos wako
Anglo Leasing (13bn) - dipak kamani, rashmi kamani, murungaru, kiraitu murungi, amos wako
KPC-Triton (10bn) - yagnesh devani, kiraitu murungi, nyoike, george okungu, peter mecha
Maize Scandal (2009) (1bn) - Names?
Am I a fool to rail against corruption instead of being more constructive & building a corruption network?
(Have I missed any scandals or names above?)
Friday, January 23, 2009
He is back... Corruption in Kenya... Aluta Continua...
Amos Kimunya is back... as Minister of Trade...
Where is the report that exonerates him?
Bottomline: Amos was the fall guy for the deal kibz made with the Libyans regarding the Grand Regency Hotel. Amos got his pay while he relaxed - he simply 'stepped aside' & was not suspended. Ultimately, it was a deal made by kibz. All the players in the sale have gone scot-free including ndungu (governor of CBK) & kimunya.
Here is a flowchart of how scandals are solved in Kenya. Courtesy of thinkersroom.
Next on the block... the Libyans will get the Kenya Petroleum Refinery... watch this space. Essar who legitimately won the bid for 50% ownership will be locked out.
The Kenya Pipeline will also be sold to the Libyans for a song. In return the Libyans will grease kibz, his family & cronies among other politicians. Proceeds from the sale of KPC will be used to pay off the banks & Oil Marketers caught in the KPC-Triton web. Of course, the crooks including devani, murungi, okungu, mecha & their cronies will all go scot-free.
Yes, Kenya is cursed. Will there be anything left in the coffers by 2012?
Where is the report that exonerates him?
Bottomline: Amos was the fall guy for the deal kibz made with the Libyans regarding the Grand Regency Hotel. Amos got his pay while he relaxed - he simply 'stepped aside' & was not suspended. Ultimately, it was a deal made by kibz. All the players in the sale have gone scot-free including ndungu (governor of CBK) & kimunya.
Here is a flowchart of how scandals are solved in Kenya. Courtesy of thinkersroom.
Next on the block... the Libyans will get the Kenya Petroleum Refinery... watch this space. Essar who legitimately won the bid for 50% ownership will be locked out.
The Kenya Pipeline will also be sold to the Libyans for a song. In return the Libyans will grease kibz, his family & cronies among other politicians. Proceeds from the sale of KPC will be used to pay off the banks & Oil Marketers caught in the KPC-Triton web. Of course, the crooks including devani, murungi, okungu, mecha & their cronies will all go scot-free.
Yes, Kenya is cursed. Will there be anything left in the coffers by 2012?
Thursday, January 22, 2009
Is Africa cursed?
While Kenyans are aghast at the pay packages of Kenyan MPs, president, ministers & their ilk... Ghana passed a retirement package like no other for their ex-presidents... The parliament did this on the last day!
(Hopefully, kibz does not get any ideas...)
(Maybe former prez Bush might have been better off as an African prez!)
And you wonder why most of Sub-Saharan Africa remains dirt poor?
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
The Top 20 African Billionaires
I am just copying & pasting... I have no idea as to how this information was acquired or calculations made...
Mind Blowing how much wealth this lot have acquired !!!
The list is headed by Equatorial Guinea President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo with an estimated $65 billion fortune.
For many years now it has been silently rumoured that daniel moi who ruled Kenya for 24 years marking an era that is associated with the worst forms of corruption, was along with his sons the richest man in the country.
Nigeria has six nationals in the top 20 rich-list including one immediate former President Olusegun Obasanjo.
Zimbabwe’s hardline ruler and the man in the news currently, Robert Mugabe is placed at number 8 with an estimated $3billion despite the fact that his country is in the doghouse.
Libyan President Muamar Ghadafi is placed second.
1. Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo (est $65 Billion)
President of Equatorial Guinea since 1979
2. Muammar al-Gaddafi ($56 Billion)
Leader and Guide of the Revolution, The Libyan Leader
3. Dr. Mike Adenuga ($27 Billion)
Dr. Mike Adenuga, Chairman of Globacom, a Telecommunications company
4. Onsi Sawiris ($20 Billion)
Onsi Sawiris, Egptian Businessman who heads Orascom, Telecommunicatons company
5. Mohammed Al Amoudi ($ 9 Billion)
Mohammed Al Amoudi, Ethiopian Business man, Oil, Gas, Mining, Hotels, Agriculture and hospitals
6. Aliko Dangote ($ 4 Billion)
Aliko Dangote, Nigerian Businessman, Dankotes businesses include food processing, cement manufacturing and freight
7. Strive Masiyiwa ($ 3.5 Billion)
Strive Masiyiwa (aka "Bill Gates of Africa") is a Zimbabwean businessman and cellphone pioneer, founding Econet Wireless.
8. Robert Mugabe ($ 3 Billion)
Robert Mugabe, President of Zimbabwe
9. Mohamed Fayed ( $ 3 Billion)
Mohammed Fayed, Eqyptian Businessman
His Business interests include Harrods department store in london and Fulham, an English, Premiership football club
10. Ibru Family ( $ 2.5 Billion)
Hotels and Banking in Africa, Nigerian Businesses
11. Femi Otedola ( $ 2 Billion)
Nigerian Business man, Business interests include Zenon Oil and other Oil Products
12. Yoweri Museveni ($ 1.7 Billion)
Uganda's economy began to grow steadily and poverty levels have dropped by 45% since 1992.
13. Olusegun Obasanjo ( $ 1.3 Billion)
Olusegun Obasanjo, President of Nigeria
14. Anis haggar ( $ 1.3 Billion)
Sudanese industrialist,
15. Mo Ibrahim ($ 1.2 Billion)
A Sudanese, the founder of Celtel International
16. Arap Moi ( $ 1.2 Billion)
Daniel Toroitich Arap Moi, President of Kenya 1978 - 2002. Corruption ran riot during his reign culminating with the massive Goldenberg scandal.
17. Musa Danjuma (est $ 1.2 Billion)
Musa Danjuma, A Nigerian Businessman, Business Interests include real estate and shipping
18. Patrice Motsepe (est $ 1.2 Billion)
South African entrepreneur, has interests in gold, ferrous metals, base metals, and platinum
19. Madhvani Family (est $ 800 Million)
Roni Madvani, A Ugandan Business man Business interests include Uganda Tourism Board and Hotels
20. Cyril Ramaphosa (est $ 600 Million)
Cyril Ramaphosa South African business man and politician Business interests include Shaduka Holdings, Bidvest Group, MTN Group and SASRIA Limited
Mind Blowing how much wealth this lot have acquired !!!
The list is headed by Equatorial Guinea President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo with an estimated $65 billion fortune.
For many years now it has been silently rumoured that daniel moi who ruled Kenya for 24 years marking an era that is associated with the worst forms of corruption, was along with his sons the richest man in the country.
Nigeria has six nationals in the top 20 rich-list including one immediate former President Olusegun Obasanjo.
Zimbabwe’s hardline ruler and the man in the news currently, Robert Mugabe is placed at number 8 with an estimated $3billion despite the fact that his country is in the doghouse.
Libyan President Muamar Ghadafi is placed second.
1. Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo (est $65 Billion)
President of Equatorial Guinea since 1979
2. Muammar al-Gaddafi ($56 Billion)
Leader and Guide of the Revolution, The Libyan Leader
3. Dr. Mike Adenuga ($27 Billion)
Dr. Mike Adenuga, Chairman of Globacom, a Telecommunications company
4. Onsi Sawiris ($20 Billion)
Onsi Sawiris, Egptian Businessman who heads Orascom, Telecommunicatons company
5. Mohammed Al Amoudi ($ 9 Billion)
Mohammed Al Amoudi, Ethiopian Business man, Oil, Gas, Mining, Hotels, Agriculture and hospitals
6. Aliko Dangote ($ 4 Billion)
Aliko Dangote, Nigerian Businessman, Dankotes businesses include food processing, cement manufacturing and freight
7. Strive Masiyiwa ($ 3.5 Billion)
Strive Masiyiwa (aka "Bill Gates of Africa") is a Zimbabwean businessman and cellphone pioneer, founding Econet Wireless.
8. Robert Mugabe ($ 3 Billion)
Robert Mugabe, President of Zimbabwe
9. Mohamed Fayed ( $ 3 Billion)
Mohammed Fayed, Eqyptian Businessman
His Business interests include Harrods department store in london and Fulham, an English, Premiership football club
10. Ibru Family ( $ 2.5 Billion)
Hotels and Banking in Africa, Nigerian Businesses
11. Femi Otedola ( $ 2 Billion)
Nigerian Business man, Business interests include Zenon Oil and other Oil Products
12. Yoweri Museveni ($ 1.7 Billion)
Uganda's economy began to grow steadily and poverty levels have dropped by 45% since 1992.
13. Olusegun Obasanjo ( $ 1.3 Billion)
Olusegun Obasanjo, President of Nigeria
14. Anis haggar ( $ 1.3 Billion)
Sudanese industrialist,
15. Mo Ibrahim ($ 1.2 Billion)
A Sudanese, the founder of Celtel International
16. Arap Moi ( $ 1.2 Billion)
Daniel Toroitich Arap Moi, President of Kenya 1978 - 2002. Corruption ran riot during his reign culminating with the massive Goldenberg scandal.
17. Musa Danjuma (est $ 1.2 Billion)
Musa Danjuma, A Nigerian Businessman, Business Interests include real estate and shipping
18. Patrice Motsepe (est $ 1.2 Billion)
South African entrepreneur, has interests in gold, ferrous metals, base metals, and platinum
19. Madhvani Family (est $ 800 Million)
Roni Madvani, A Ugandan Business man Business interests include Uganda Tourism Board and Hotels
20. Cyril Ramaphosa (est $ 600 Million)
Cyril Ramaphosa South African business man and politician Business interests include Shaduka Holdings, Bidvest Group, MTN Group and SASRIA Limited
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
Congrats to Obama & what Africa can learn...
So... a president (& party) comes into power but what a difference from what we see in most of Africa...
A peaceful election period... peaceful election day... a clear-cut victory i.e. negligible fraud... a phone call conceding the election... a peaceful & organised transition... the retiring president retires gracefully...
In Kenya, violence during & after the election...
In Guinea, a coup after the prez dies...
In Uganda, museveni wants more terms as president...
I do hope that Obama nixes any funny moves by African despots... Obama has the moral advantage if he criticises these despots!
So who are these despots?
- kibaki coming up in 2012
- museveni coming up in 2011
- swazi king who needs to be deposed (& castrated)
- bongo of gabon
- many others
An inauguration that attracts not only the democrats but the old, young, all races, etc...
In Kenya, there was a hurried inauguration after a disputed election count...
Saturday, January 17, 2009
Why would anyone take Kenyans seriously?
#1 - According to Daily Nation: "Economic secretary Geoffrey Mwau said although Kenya has not felt the effects of the global financial crisis, lack of corporate governance in shares dealings poses a great risk."
Wow... I would have never guessed! So the drop in tourists, lower prices for tea, flowers, depreciation of the KSh vs US$... wow... not a result of the GFC?
And CBK governor was claiming 7% growth for Kenya in 2008. I have not heard from him in a while. Perhaps indigestion after gorging on humble pie?
#2 - Back to donors with a begging bowl... while scams 'exposed' in the past 4 weeks account for KShs 15bn.
- 8bn for the KPC-Triton scam coz govt (aka taxpayers) will bail out KPC.
- 1bn for the NCPB maize theft/scandals.
- 6bn for 'over-billing' for the pipeline extensions/expansion/enhancement - chinese firm implicated.
- Great cartoon in the DN
- Trips to USA for Obama's inauguration
- Other junkets by politicians while in the USA
#3 - Corruption - The next frontier - Chinese & Libyan connections
I am worried about corruption in Kenya but it seems to be going a notch higher with the chinese & libyan firms. Since these firms are state controlled, you might as well give up hope on getting information from the chinese or libyans to fight the scams!
Wow... I would have never guessed! So the drop in tourists, lower prices for tea, flowers, depreciation of the KSh vs US$... wow... not a result of the GFC?
And CBK governor was claiming 7% growth for Kenya in 2008. I have not heard from him in a while. Perhaps indigestion after gorging on humble pie?
#2 - Back to donors with a begging bowl... while scams 'exposed' in the past 4 weeks account for KShs 15bn.
- 8bn for the KPC-Triton scam coz govt (aka taxpayers) will bail out KPC.
- 1bn for the NCPB maize theft/scandals.
- 6bn for 'over-billing' for the pipeline extensions/expansion/enhancement - chinese firm implicated.
- Great cartoon in the DN
- Trips to USA for Obama's inauguration
- Other junkets by politicians while in the USA
#3 - Corruption - The next frontier - Chinese & Libyan connections
I am worried about corruption in Kenya but it seems to be going a notch higher with the chinese & libyan firms. Since these firms are state controlled, you might as well give up hope on getting information from the chinese or libyans to fight the scams!
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
Kenya Airports Authority - Coldtusker vindicated - Again
I wish I had good news for you but...
Anyway here are 3 earlier posts...
Why the 3 posts?
Well... as I have told you muhoho-ho-ho was a huge (expensive, nepotistic, corrupt) joke! So his firing... is it a time to cry or laugh?
Price Controls & favoritism for NOCK - More future scams to come
I have argued that market solutions work best for businesses... (look at the scandals at NCPB & KPC)
Well... the idiots (or conmen) in the Kenyan government are at it again... they used the fuel shortages (caused by Kenyan government's incompetence) to attack Oil Marketers & demand price controls...
Furthermore, the gov't in its infinite stupidity wants to give NOCK (a government subsidised entity) the right to import 30% of Kenya's petroleum needs... which will lead to massive corruption...
So pray the idiots do not get their way or I will have to say... "I told you so" again...
BTW... here are past scams at KPC
KPC-Triton Scam: Daily Nation makes a faux pas... again
Daily Nation (& other Kenyans newspapers) not only have atrociously written articles, they make absurd claims based on poor (or no) research...
On 28 Dec 2008, DN claimed their investigations revealed the fuel shortages were created by Oil Marketers. The article - the lead story - exonerated KPC & seemed to imply KPC was an angel...
And now we know better... and not coz of DN but the ad in the paper when KCB published a court order barring Triton...
Subsequently, DN & BDA tried to salvage their reputation with nary an apology to the Oil Marketers or Kenyan public for the misinformation.
I betcha that the 'truth' had to be spoon-fed to the DN... before they could make any sense of it...
So I am taking a poll... are the financial/business writers/editors, etc on DN:
(a) Idiots
(b)Incompetent
(c) Corrupt (incentivized to write anti-OM stories)
(d) All of the above
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
Weekly Citizen's take on KPC-Triton scam
This is copied from what the comments section by Anon in an earlier post. I have NOT researched the information provided but it sounds interesting. I have edited unrelated/extraneous content to shorten the post without removing/deleting any information related to the KPC-Triton scam. The entire comment can be referenced in the earlier blog posts' comment section.
The article incriminating Raila Odinga and his family in suspect oil deal, which also involved a cartel of wealthy Asian wheeler dealer appeared in the latest issue of the Nairobi ’s publication, the WEEKLY CITIZEN, which is one of the mushrooming alternative press, commonly called “Gutter Press”. The paper is credited for its in-depth investigative report, making it a lethal weapons to the politicians.
In a page one leading article the articles says.” Towards the end of 2008, Kenyans were forced to grapple with an unreliable supply of fuel and artificial rise in its pricing.”
On more than one occasion, the Managing Director of the National Oil Pipeline Mr George Okungu gave a widely televised interviews to reassure Kenyans that there was no fuel shortage or crisis as such in the country. But between December 28 and 29th,December 2008 most filling stations upcountry had no fuel to supply to the motorists. Workers returning from Holiday, particularly those travelling from Western Kenya back to the City got briefly stranded in Kisumu and other towns.
During the same period, a medium sized oil firm called Triton Limited, which is run by Mr Yagnes Devani and Mr Pankaj Somaia was reported to have allegedly rendered legally bankrupt, suddenly appeared in the oil trading scene.
The duo, according to CITIZEN’’s article have their roots in the lakeside Kenyan City of Kisumu and it is in Chemelil area within the Nyanza sugar belt, where the first few Triton Limited outlets were set up. What was most intriguing is that in-spite of its definite inability to source and service the largest oil order in the country, Triton Ltd, is alleged to have secured the government tender to purchase national oil supplies for a six month quota through the alleged intervention of the Prime Minister Raila Odinga, who is said to have personal and family interests in the oil industry as a major player.
Triton Ltd beat all other seasonal firms such as OilLibya{formerly Mobil} and Shell/BP.
Yagness Devani is the brother to the late Harish Devani who owned the multimillion complex, Simmers Plaza in in a Nairobi suburbs of Westlands, but alleged to have committed suicide a couples of years ago after swindling those close to former President Daniel Arap Moi billions of shillings in tenders scams supplies at the Kenyan Ports Authority {KPA}and Kenya Power and Lighting Company {KPLC}
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“Indeed Triton Ltd had no capacity, to deliver on such a huge consignment of oil to the nation, but immediately after securing the government tender set upon sub-contracting the same to its rivals companies at a profit without any actual direct importation,”
In addition, Triton Ltd, according to the report was that oil suppliers refused to give in to the Triton’s sordid machinations, and this is what caused the brief artificial fuel shortage in Kenyan, which in turn raised the fuel prices even much higher. To compound the saga, Afri Global Ltd, a firm belonging to Raila Odinga’s elder brother Dr. Oburu Oginga MP who is the Finance Assistant Minister and which is run by Dr. Oginga’s son a pint sized fellow called Elijah Abonyo Oburu was one of the key beneficiaries.
After this scam Elijah Oburu had since bought a brand new show room Mercedez Benz limousine 350 valued at colossal amount of Kshs 24 million which he now drives around Kisumu City.
Another firm, African Oils Ltd, which belong to the Prime Minister’s son Fidel Castro Raila Odinga was also occasioned adequate favor to profiteer from the scandal, charged the paper article.
And not to be out done was the Prime Minister himself with his company Bakri Ltd, operated by one Mr. Mike Njeru who joined the lists of compliant firms that allegedly benefited from the tender pool sharing and in turn sold the same to the highest bidder!.
Raila Odinga’s younger sister Adhiambo is the managing director of the Petro Plus firm that has been involved in bulk oil sales in the high seas, a host received from Nigeria thanks to the closeness of the Prime Minister with the former ruler Gen. Olusegun Obasanjo. Libya and Southern Sudan government as donations to finance democratic pursuits in Kenya .
So entrenched is the Odinga family interests in the oil industry the players advise that it is practically impossible to do serious oil business in Kenya without roping in a family member.
At the centre of the scheme, says the paper, is Pankaj Somaia, a wheeler-dealer in the Moi regime era and alleged wanted in various countries for questioning on an array of criminal activities.”
In any oil sale scheme of the magnitude, Triton Ltd dabbed in the returns, kick-backs included run into hundreds of million of shillings.” the report says.
It is widely rumoured that Devani heavily funded last year’s 2007 general campaign for ODM team an that those who benefited by Devani earl this year were only return ing a favor.
“Indeed the grapevine has it that some senior Ministers in the grand coalition cabinet drive vehicles donated by Devani early this year. It is also an open secret that two MPs have been on Devani’s payroll ostensibly so that they extend favors for their benefactors as and when needed.” adds the paper.
Meanwhile Citizen reported that Mr. Devani himself is said to be holed up in some undisclosed destination abroad, but he keep in constant touch with the Prime Minister through one called Collins Odhiambo [formerly of Citi Bank}, and up to fortnight ago Triton Ltd, commercial director.”
Mr Odhiambo is said to be in big panic since Triton Ltd, went burst and placed under the official receivers as in the case with an array of high placed personalities in the government.
Another employee who took cover only before the take-over of Triton Ltd, is a Mr Kioko who was in charge of the firm’s operations at the KPA in the Kenyan port city of Mombasa .
Immigration Minister Gerald Otieno Kajwang’ who has also been a regular visitor in Devani’s office is together with his personal assistant{PA} is said to be working day and night to cover up five senior employees of Asian extractions who were irregularly employed by Triton Ltd over the last 10 months.
Sunday, January 11, 2009
Kenya's reliability suffers blow after KPC scam
KPC's fraudulent activities has scarred Kenya's 'reputation' as a reliable trading partner.
Rwanda is seeking alternates to Kenya for its fuel supplies. Furthermore, some idiots (newspaper journalists, KPC & the always gullible Kenyan public) claimed that the Oil Marketers were exporting fuel meant for local consumption. It turns out that both Uganda & Rwanda faced massive fuel shortfalls thanks to KPC's complicity & idiocy in the theft of fuel from their depots!
Basically, there was not enough fuel for local or export since there was no fuel... despite fake adverts in the Kenyan newspapers about the quantities 'available' or 'pumped'.
And Kenyan newspapers were also compromised or just stupid & they hardly research their business reporting. Even raila & kibz got into the act... blaming 'cartels'... notice how quiet they have been of late? Maybe they are choking on humble pie?
And KPC blamed everyone else... KPLC, Shippers, Oil Marketers, etc
Rwanda is seeking alternates to Kenya for its fuel supplies. Furthermore, some idiots (newspaper journalists, KPC & the always gullible Kenyan public) claimed that the Oil Marketers were exporting fuel meant for local consumption. It turns out that both Uganda & Rwanda faced massive fuel shortfalls thanks to KPC's complicity & idiocy in the theft of fuel from their depots!
Basically, there was not enough fuel for local or export since there was no fuel... despite fake adverts in the Kenyan newspapers about the quantities 'available' or 'pumped'.
And Kenyan newspapers were also compromised or just stupid & they hardly research their business reporting. Even raila & kibz got into the act... blaming 'cartels'... notice how quiet they have been of late? Maybe they are choking on humble pie?
And KPC blamed everyone else... KPLC, Shippers, Oil Marketers, etc
Friday, January 09, 2009
Scandal rocks KPC - Coldtusker told you...
Coldtusker has been vindicated (again)... I have been accused by many 'blind, dumb & deaf' folks of being overly critical of government (owned/controlled) institutions & agencies...
I blogged on the fishiness at the KPC... yep!
I may not be the #1 fan of Oil Marketers but I prefer competition (free markets) rather than corrupt & inefficient government bureaucrats running the show...
KPC has been feeding the gullible media, some (moronic) Kenyans & Oil Marketers with false information about the levels of fuel stocks in Kenya Oil Storage Facilities (KOSF) as well quantities at their depots & in the pipeline...
Kenyans/government/idiots blamed Oil Marketers for the recent fuel shortages... well, it turns out there was a real shortage because the so-called fuel is missing!!! Yes, KPC can't account for 56,000,000 litres... (no 56 or 560 or 5,600 or 56,000)... worth Kes 7,000,000,000 (Seven Billion)... Kaput... Abracadabra...
No wonder there was a fuel shortage... KPC says it was there... but it is not... so where is it now?
Was it ever there?
I may not be the #1 fan of Oil Marketers but I prefer competition (free markets) rather than corrupt & inefficient government bureaucrats running the show...
KPC has been feeding the gullible media, some (moronic) Kenyans & Oil Marketers with false information about the levels of fuel stocks in Kenya Oil Storage Facilities (KOSF) as well quantities at their depots & in the pipeline...
Kenyans/government/idiots blamed Oil Marketers for the recent fuel shortages... well, it turns out there was a real shortage because the so-called fuel is missing!!! Yes, KPC can't account for 56,000,000 litres... (no 56 or 560 or 5,600 or 56,000)... worth Kes 7,000,000,000 (Seven Billion)... Kaput... Abracadabra...
No wonder there was a fuel shortage... KPC says it was there... but it is not... so where is it now?
Was it ever there?
(BTW, the KPC owns the KOSF storage tanks & since that is the only option for Oil Marketers, Banks/Financiers, etc... so there was no choice but use KPC)
Engen (a private Oil Marketer) complained that Triton (politically connected & always favoured by KPC) has not delivered Engen's share of the fuel stocks Engen already paid for... My sources tell me most Oil Marketers are in the same boat... since they had to buy the (non-existent) stocks from Triton due to OTS rules...
So...no wonder there was a shortage!!! And the government blamed/claimed Oil Marketers were 'hoarding'... WTF??? How do you hoard what you don't have!!! (Please remember these are government employees who like hoarding my taxes in their pockets)
Now there are silly proposals to:
- Introduce price controls (bad, bad idea)
- Give NOCK (another inefficient 100% gov't owned firm) the right/guarantee to import 30% of Kenya's fuel requirements rather than compete vs the rest of the importers. What if NOCK negotiates prices that are say a little over market... the difference going to some politician's bank account in Cayman?
Do I smell scandal & corruption if the proposal were to pass? YES.
Engen (a private Oil Marketer) complained that Triton (politically connected & always favoured by KPC) has not delivered Engen's share of the fuel stocks Engen already paid for... My sources tell me most Oil Marketers are in the same boat... since they had to buy the (non-existent) stocks from Triton due to OTS rules...
So...no wonder there was a shortage!!! And the government blamed/claimed Oil Marketers were 'hoarding'... WTF??? How do you hoard what you don't have!!! (Please remember these are government employees who like hoarding my taxes in their pockets)
Now there are silly proposals to:
- Introduce price controls (bad, bad idea)
- Give NOCK (another inefficient 100% gov't owned firm) the right/guarantee to import 30% of Kenya's fuel requirements rather than compete vs the rest of the importers. What if NOCK negotiates prices that are say a little over market... the difference going to some politician's bank account in Cayman?
Do I smell scandal & corruption if the proposal were to pass? YES.
Additional Links:
Why corruption thrives at KPC & benefits accruing to political appointees
KPC lied about Fuel Stocks (Missing/Stolen fuel)
KPC lied about Fuel Stocks (Missing/Stolen fuel)
Triton - KPC alledgely in cahoots with Triton
It seems that Kenya Commercial Bank (KCB) lent $24mn to Triton to buy petroleum supplies under the OTS. The products were held by Kenya Pipeline Company (KPC) as 'custodian' for KCB's interests.
Now... it seems some corruption (or incompetence) within KPC meant the stocks were released to Triton without KCB's approval... So Triton sold the stocks... pocketed the cash... and split!!!
So KCB went to court to freeze the assets of Triton... and if KPC does not pony up the cash... then KCB will probably sue KPC...
I still can't believe that some (misguided) Kenyans believe KPC should remain 100% in government hands!
Solution: Sell the Triton stations asap to NOCK (or another buyer) through TRANSPARENT means. Pay off as many debts as possible with the proceeds. Put out an international arrest warrant for the 'owners'. Sack, arrest & charge the chaps who authorised the 'release' of the products. Seize their assets since corruption was likely in this matter.
Start the process to privatize KPC.
Now... it seems some corruption (or incompetence) within KPC meant the stocks were released to Triton without KCB's approval... So Triton sold the stocks... pocketed the cash... and split!!!
So KCB went to court to freeze the assets of Triton... and if KPC does not pony up the cash... then KCB will probably sue KPC...
I still can't believe that some (misguided) Kenyans believe KPC should remain 100% in government hands!
Solution: Sell the Triton stations asap to NOCK (or another buyer) through TRANSPARENT means. Pay off as many debts as possible with the proceeds. Put out an international arrest warrant for the 'owners'. Sack, arrest & charge the chaps who authorised the 'release' of the products. Seize their assets since corruption was likely in this matter.
Start the process to privatize KPC.
Thursday, January 08, 2009
Where hither the Kenya Shilling?
What do you guys/gals think where the Kenya Shilling will head versus the basket of forex currencies (USD, Yen, GBP, Euro)....
I don't understand the reason (except the 'safe haven' argument) for the strength of the US$... The US gov't (thru the Fed & Treasury & other agencies) will pump (since Aug 2008) in $1,000,000,000,000 (almost 6% of the USA's GDP) into the system by June 2009....
Whereas I do not expect inflation to be a problem since the 'extra' cash will be negated in part by:
China is a wild card... or the joker?
Please provide your thoughts... and guidance... and ideas...
I don't understand the reason (except the 'safe haven' argument) for the strength of the US$... The US gov't (thru the Fed & Treasury & other agencies) will pump (since Aug 2008) in $1,000,000,000,000 (almost 6% of the USA's GDP) into the system by June 2009....
Whereas I do not expect inflation to be a problem since the 'extra' cash will be negated in part by:
- lower interest rates on loans
- lower housing costs
- lower fuel/energy costs
- reduced salaries (loss of jobs or no more increases)
- discounting of merchandise/food
China is a wild card... or the joker?
Please provide your thoughts... and guidance... and ideas...
Coldtusker is Twittering
Just a fad or another tool? Or am I just a Twit... thanks to Ryan Shen-Hoover of Investing In Africa.
Anyway you can fine me twittering on www.twitter.com/coldtusker
Anyway you can fine me twittering on www.twitter.com/coldtusker
Wednesday, January 07, 2009
Novelty in the airline industry - airtime for flights!
Will it survive (buy airtime & redeem for flights!) but leave the private sector to think of ideas... smart or dumb... who is to say?
Government bureaucrats would never allow for real progress! Simply no imagination!
Kenya Ferries Ltd - Ferries stall - Deja Vu
I told you so... yes, I, coldtusker, warned Kenyans... "Warped Priorities at KFS"
2 of the 3 ferries were out of order at Likoni today... And trust me... the way things are going, I expect one to sink soon... which is bad news for tourism...
Solution:
- Either privatise KFS which means charging the passengers (or subsidizing the KFS).
- Build a bridge or tunnel asap!!!
2 of the 3 ferries were out of order at Likoni today... And trust me... the way things are going, I expect one to sink soon... which is bad news for tourism...
Solution:
- Either privatise KFS which means charging the passengers (or subsidizing the KFS).
- Build a bridge or tunnel asap!!!
Tuesday, January 06, 2009
CBK governor & his pies in the sky (and a MONSTER story)
The CBK governor (ndungu) was mouthing off idiotic growth numbers (7%) earlier in the year after the Post-Election Violence while his more sensible colleuage Prof. Ryan was counseling caution (2-3%).
Well... it turns out that Ryan's estimates will be far closer to the truth... especially with inflation in the 20% region... and this AFTER the state subsidies for maize kicks in...
BTW... How many axles does this 128-tyre monster have?
Do you think the (corrupt) police officers will ask for a 128,000 bribe to let it through?
Well... it turns out that Ryan's estimates will be far closer to the truth... especially with inflation in the 20% region... and this AFTER the state subsidies for maize kicks in...
BTW... How many axles does this 128-tyre monster have?
Do you think the (corrupt) police officers will ask for a 128,000 bribe to let it through?
Monday, January 05, 2009
Kenyan Government Officials overpaid?
Are 'top' government officials in Kenya overpaid?
(Keep in mind the US economy even in its 'diminished' state is 1,000x larger than Kenya's...)
This includes the Executive, Legislative & Judicial branches...
Check this link out...
Saturday, January 03, 2009
Government Blunders/Corruption continues in Fuel Shortages in Kenya
The Government of Kenya (GoK) does PR well... or is it that many Kenyans are gullible or just stupid?
It seems the Oil Marketers have not done a good job highlighting their side of the story probably fearing retribution.
Here are a couple of stories that highlights the idiocy in GoK & its entities.
Kenya Pipeline Company (KPC) stops pumping fuel from Mombasa to Nairobi while Nairobi faces fuel shortages!
KPC has further hitches in pumping fuel from Mombasa to Inland depots.
Politically connected firm, Triton, hogs space at the Mombasa fuel depot delaying offloading of fuel imported by other firms.
And what bullshit is this? Ngumbao Kithi & Jane Akinyi claim there has been no fuel shortage at the Coast for 2 weeks... I beg to differ! There were some towns (Watamu & Kilifi) that were as dry as a desert at least once since 15 Dec 2008. Were these journalists bribed or idiots?
Now in Tanzania... a failed government airline that needs constant bailouts while KQ (privatized) remains profitable in a tough environment. Precision Air (49% owned by KQ) remains profitable & is expanding.
I hope KPC & KPRL is fully privatized. Soon. Transparently.
Thursday, January 01, 2009
France's First Ladies...
Just to brighten my (erm, your) 2009...
Top - Rama Yade is France's Minister for Human Rights.
Left - Rachida Dati is France's Minister for Justice.
Right - Carla Bruni is France's First Lady.
Sarkozy sure knows how to choose them!
(Kenya's equivalents would be... (a) Human Rights... hakunaaa... (b) martha karua (c) lucy kibaki)
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