First... SafariCon stays true to its name... truth in advertising is unknown to them... Customer Service is unknown... more later...
Now to their proposed Offer For Sale - not an Initial Public Offering that would raise funds for the firm - that will provide the current gov't with funds.
Rumours have been flying back & forth but the total value of the Offer could run from KShs 35 Billion to 60 Billion. Of this amount, healthy chunk 20-35% may be reserved for "foreign" buyers. My gut feeling is that it will tend towards KShs 60bn with KShs 35bn earmarked for "retail" investors. The balance will go to SafCon employees, dealers, foreign buyers, etc!
I think it is UNFAIR to sell part of SafCon to "foreigners" while Kenyans will be starved of shares. The mantra among the brokers is that Kenyans can't absorb 100% of SafCon. I say that is BULL****. After all it is mainly Kenyans (incl diaspora) & Kenyan residents who contributed to SafCon's success.
Considering the over-subscription for other shares e.g. Kenya Re-insurance & KenGen shows the capacity is there. KenGen raised KShs 27bn vs only KShs 8bn worth of shares offered for sale. All the GOK divestitures were oversubscribed including Mumias, albeit barely.
It is estimated there will be 1,000,000 CDS accounts opened by 24 Dec 2007 - elections be damned coz money beats politics! - & an average application of KShs 35,000 means a 100% subscription rate if the Offer is for KShs 35bn. SafCon has a huge reach all over the country & a low minimum application threshold will open the OFS up to many more Kenyans.
* Hundreds of thousands of Kenyans are prepared for SafCon's OFS with at least 10,000/- saved up.
* Tens of thousands of Kenyans have the "average" of 35,000/- saved up.
* Thousands of Kenyans have more than 100,000/- saved up.
* Hundreds have 10,000,000/- or more - going by Shareholder lists.
* Add the Kenyan Unit Trusts, Insurance Firms, Banks, etc who have 25,000,000/- & more to invest.
* Finally there are the E.African Investors who are treated as "locals". (Erm, unlike the Ugandans, the Tanzanians treat Kenyans as "foreign" investors, why do we allow them - Tanzanians - to participate as locals?)
Therefore, even if we had KShs 60bn worth of shares for sale... they would be sold, nay, over-subscribed if sold at the right "discount" to Kenyans.
I think SafCon should favour Kenyan, then the Ugandans, then E. Africans... before the "foreigners"...
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