Wednesday, November 14, 2007

US Style electioneering is here... (with some violence)

Wow, the Kenyan political scene is heating up...

I do not enjoy politics BUT politics in Kenya has a substantial effect on the economy... thus I am taking a look at the current presidential electioneering...

First, a "banned" campaign video clip/ad on YouTube.
  • Why would the gov't ban the video when the pics/video are in the public domain? (OK, seeing Roocy in PJs in public is not for the faint-hearted!) The internet allows Kenyans to see it anyway... many have the clip on flash disks & e-mails are zipping around...
  • Or is the claim of a ban merely a hoax/marketing strategy by ODM? (Dick Morris at work?
The Domo Domo clips are smart... and subtle... showing the failings of kibaki's govt esp ANGLO-FLEECING.

The PNU clips show "progress" but PNU should be warned that BJP (India) lost the elections - even after 8% annual growth - while their slogan "India Rising" coz the rural voters felt neglected in favour of the Urbanites. PNU is unfairly hurt by "poor economy" perceptions. It is not their fault that oil prices have hit high levels thus an increase in inflation. Furthermore, there has been visible development in many parts of the country. Of course, dan "the idiot" moi screwed up Kenya that there was no way but up!

The anglo-fleecing scandal has scarred kibaki. That is a black eye however you slice & dice it. Why did he tolerate the corruption in his cabinet/government? If not for Anglo-fleecing, kibaki was a shoo-in! Kenyans do like him... kibaki's association with dan "the idiot" moi is unfortunate esp when goldenberg happened during moi's watch. Anglo-fleecing started under moi. Then there is Turkwell & the Mobitelea issue. moi is a thief. Period. He should be prosecuted NOT feted!

ODM can't claim to be the party of "clean" with the myriad crooks they have on board including ruto(yk1992), gumo(times tower land "allocation"), etc! There are many more... I think the crooks on ODM/Raila's bandwagon will hurt him... He should have taken the bull by the horns & refused to co-operate with the crooks! Most ODM politicians served in either moi's or kibaki's government including Raila (albeit not for long).

Second, a 'Dick Morris' hired by ODM. Wow, they are serious considering Dick worked for clinton in 1996. BTW, the clinton administration has the dubious distinction of having the most financial scandals in recent American history e.g. travelgate, whitewater, etc.

Will PNU hire a "spinmeister"? I bet they will!

Third, the placement of posters on cars, buses, pillars, highway dividers, public bathrooms, etc!!! It pisses me off that the cities, towns & countryside are littered with these posters!

Why don't we have public debates on TV & Radio where we can read about issues/policies rather than the ugly posters everywhere?

Billboards - some tasteful - are OK since they are ads which will come down soon esp after elections. The posters are an eyesore.

Fourth, terms such as "kumbafu", "adui", etc dominate the little news we get on TV or Radio. Funerals are political events not for the dead or their families but the politicians.

We need to have PUBLIC DEBATES by the presidential candidates instead of mudslinging all the way! And this leads to violence e.g. Kisii, Kuresoi, etc. Since nyachae is a PNU supporter, he remains free... even after publicly advocating violence. If ODM wins, I think nyachae should be prosecuted for "incitement"...

ODM supporters are not shying away from violence either. When will it end? I fear the Taliban (pro-ODM/Raila) & the Mungiki will clash before the elections with horrendous consequences.

Ali (police commish) is disappointing Kenyans... How can he "ban" the singing of the National Anthem. It is my RIGHT to sing it while taking a crap, showering, hiking or to put kid/s to sleep.
The police are supposed to be non-partisan. Their job is to enforce the law not make laws. Period!

Fifth, tribal politics flare up.
  • Accusations are flying that PNU is a "GEMA" outfit with the Kikuyus leading the way to re-elect one of their own. It is a fair observation because even Uhuru Kenyatta (the supposed "leader of the official opposition" & a Kikuyu) roots for the incumbent!
  • Nevertheless, there are many other supporters of PNU from various other tribes/regions. All is all... I think tribes & tribal politics should be a non-issue. Merit should be the primary factor BUT the reality remains... Kenya is composed not of Kenyans but of tribes.
  • Raila single-handedly controls a HUGE block of the Luo vote regardless of his performance. That is sad.
Sixth, the gov't (PNU-led) is doling out goodies & promises like there is no tomorrow. That is unfair to the opposition & Kenyans. Where was the gov't during the past 5 years? The traffic in Nairobi is horrendous, basic services have no improved substantially & the road network is atrocious. Even economically significant areas like Industrial Area have seen little improvement of the roads.

KAA under george muhoho(hoho) is a joke. KAA is woefully behind schedule in upgrading Nairobi's main airport. The Kisumu airport had to be shut down when the runway was washed away. And the idiots at KAA claimed it was 'safe'...

ODM's "luminaries" have little to show for development:
  • Ngilu's hare-brained "universal healthcare" plan which was simply an over-burdening of Kenya's private sector.
  • Balala did a fine job in Mombasa as mayor.
  • Mudavadi was a competent Finance Minister.
  • william ruto was part of an amorphous corrupt aoutfit known as yk1992 which campaigned for the then thief-in-chief, dan "the idiot" moi.
  • Raila... he was in gov't for too short a time to make a difference but his silly comments about forcing KQ to ferry khat/miraa was uncalled for. KQ is PRIVATE. The GOK owns less than 40% including shares owned by Treasury & NSSF. Let KL M & KQ's board run the airline. Raila should stick to what he (thiks he) knows.
Seventh, opinion polls, opinion polls & more opinion polls...

I could go on & on... I have not made up my mind which way to go... but I am watching closely...

P.S. Kalonzo... now I believe he made a "calculated" mistake in quitting ODM.
  • Was he bribed to quit ODM thus break it up?
  • Is he angling for a powerful coalition position?
  • Will be "quit" the race before elections & defect/support PNU/kibaki?
  • All in all... he might turn out to be the 2nd most powerful politician in Kenya! Or a king-maker...
AND WHY ALL THE ABOVE FOR MY FINANCIALLY INCLINED BLOG?

  1. How will all this election &/or election rhetoric affect the business/economy of Kenya?
  2. What of the NSE?
  3. What of the confidence in Kenyan economy?
  4. What of tourism?
  5. Will inflation jump coz of elections spending & "goodies" dished out?

8 comments:

bankelele said...

Other dirty style tricks are; (i) ripping down billboards (not just posters) of opponent of your preferred candidate (has happened to Raila billboards on Mombasa Road). (ii) Online warfare: fake documents emailed and computer viruses disguised as candidate promos.

Dick Morris was a surprise. Even though he claims he working pro bono, he’s a gun for hire and they don’t do it for free. (Will the government insist – then deny – him a work permit? ;-])

On the economy; all the politicians know it’s their duty to at least adhere to 2002 and the referendum i.e. have a peaceful election (and perhaps transition). Uhuru Kenyatta is proof that losing an election is not the end of the word and Kalonzo will be sure to follow his blue print next year (wiper!)

Kenya is on the way forward and (we hope) there’s no turning back. I don’t see the NSE taking a dip out of any fears. Just for December and January (holiday and school fees) payments.

Tourism should be okay, but, you can expect the US to issue the usual travel advisory soon (possible election violence) and I feel bad for John Gakuo who has seen a lot of his hard work to clean up Nairobi City disappear in the name of politics (hawkers are back and they have returned Nairobi back almost to pre-Maitha status).

Anonymous said...

Wajaluo Wenzangu,

It is time for right-thinking Luos to speak. It is very unfortunate that a great lie is being told that all Luos are Raila damu and will vote as a block for him. This is coupled with the other lie that all Kenyans abroad support ODM. I can openly tell you that Raila has next to no support here in Canada and in some Luo stronghold back home. On his over-publicised visits here, he only managed to meet a handful of his supporters.

It is time we made some facts clear. For starters, not all Luos follow Raila like sheep. As we talk now, residents of my home constituency, Rarieda, are the envy of the entire Luo land. From the time they voted Honorable Raphael Tuju in, they have seen the kind of development that they only dream about come to their door step. For too long now, Luos have been cheated that the only Moses who will deliver them to Canaan is an Odinga. The success of Tuju's effort have torn that Jaramogi mystic into shreds. It is now clear that other Luos can lead. However, instead of working with them, Raila wants to finish them. Tuju has been hands-on in the setting up of the Rarieda water project. Courtesy of the Internet, Raila can no longer hoodwink the rest of us abroad. How can we dismiss the picture we saw of Tuju in a construction worker's overalls supervising the construction of the water pipes?

For over 40 years, luos have blindly followed the Odinga clan, and what do they have to show for it? Nothing but abject poverty at the grass roots. In the meantime, he has been raking money in.There is no question that Raila is the richest Luo in the world.Yet his supporters in Luoland and Kibera are some of the poorest people in Kenya. In a very curious twist that only Luos can enlighten us on, while the likes of Kenyatta and Moi were handing out goodies, plots and money to the needy, poor Luos see nothing wrong in handing over their meager earnings to Raila, all in the hope that once he is president, he will magically transform Luoland into the garegd od eden. Yet it is well known that Odingas have not brought an iota of development in Luoland. Just compare Luoland to their neighboring Kisiiland. While Kisiis have never even had a president, their hard work and development conscious leadership is well-displayed by their stone houses with mabati roofs. Now, visit Luoland and all you see are the same grass-roofed old round huts that Speke and Grant found in the late 1800's! Yet Raila feels no shame when he drives around there in his Sh 15 Million Hummer Military vehicle for show.

In his selfish quest fo the presidency, Raila has been telling blatant lies, hoping that he can develop a momentum that will usher him into the high office before the people realise his lies. By then it will be too late. Raila is a clever manipulator who is working on Kenyan's predilection of being attracted by the grass on the other side of the river, the unknown and any idea from abroad, and sometimes mistakenly clamoring for change for the heck of change. We are therefore calling out his lies now:

1. Raila's hatred of Kikuyus is a ploy. All he is doing is working up the politics of the 1960's on the mindless Luo masses, yet Kenyans have been busy building barriers across tribes. If he hated Kikuyus that much, how could he let his son marry a Kikuyu just the other day? As Kenyans we have seen the kind of bloodshed that tribal conflicts can lead to. Think of the Rwanda genocide, Somali clan wars and the continuing massacre in Sudan's Darfur region. Is this the kind of leadership Kenyans want? No!

2. Majimbo is a concept that has never worked anywhere in the world. Again this goes back to the Jaramogi politics of 1960. At that time the pros and cons of Majimbo were debated fair and square, and majimbo lost. Balkanisation of any country has never worked and one needs not look anyfuther than the Balkan states themselves. In the Euphoria of breaking up the USSR, majimbos and countries were formed along tribal lines. In less that three years, these breakway countries realised their mistake and came together and formed the CIS union. Do we have to break apart, kill each other, then regret later? From an economic point of view,and the fact that in a true majimbo system, each jimbo would be allocated developemnt funds based on their contribution to the national kitty, what does Luoland have to offer except dwiddling fish supplies? Raila did not raise a voice when Moi killed the sugar, cotton and rice farming by allowing tax-free imports, in fact he
selfishly benefited from it.
Raila's socialist ideas are outdated: Cuban's can't wait for Fidel Castro to die. North Korea is a dirt-poor country stuck in a time-warp. The sole purpose of creating majimbo is to provide Raila with a fiefdom to lord over once he leaves the presidency (assuming he gets it) in 2017.

3. Raila killed the Constitution reforms. By cleverly buddling some contentious issues with the main agenda, Raila was able to hoodwink some people into voting against proposed constitution reforms during the referendum. By now, Kenyans would be reaping from the benefits of those reforms. Can he tell us why we need a figurehead president, if the Prime Minister will end up doing what the current president is doing?

4. Raila cannot deliver a new constitution in 100 days. Simple logic. A constitution reform needs two-thirds majority vote in parliamennt. There is now way he can gather that in 100 days knowing the hatred he is causing. The law requires a referendum and that cannot be done in 100 days.

5. Raila's fight against corruption is a lie. While on the surface it would look like Raila is out to fight corruption, the truth is that he has been eating from the same corruption plate. This is precisely why he cannot touch those he has eaten with. A case in point is the Kisumu Mollasses plant. He was given this plant by Moi as a present for delivering Luo's to Kanu. Then he cleverly cheated Luos to raise money to buy the plant, money that he put in his pocket, and then allocated only 5% shares to them. The rest of the 95% shares and the money he collected he kept for himself. If he was clean and above board, shares for the plant should have been floated in the open market for all Kenyans to buy. He should have mobilised the various Luo organisations and groups to buy blocks of shares so that even the simplest sugar cane farmer would have had a portion of even one share.

6. Raila is selling the country to foreigners. Just the other day Raila announced that investors would flood into Kenya when he comes into power.What he didn't tell us is that he has been cutting deals with foreigners to sell them Kenyan assets and institutions one he comes into power.That has been a major reason for his numerous trips abroad. This cannot be allowed. While Kenyans have demostrated a hunger to invest in the stock market, Raila is selling us back to our old Colonisers. How can we allow this?

7. Raila is very vengeful. Another lie. Reacting to talk of his intended revenge on Moi and Kikuyus, Raila has responded that he will not revenge. Yet, when he was chased out by women in Meru ( for some reason reason he seems to bring out the wrath of women!), he was later quoted saying that those regions that don't vote for him will cry come December 29th. Which begs the question, if Raila won, would he be the President of Kenya or Nyanza? We read in the bible that "Vengeance is mine, says the Lord"..Raila is certaily not God. We cannot have a president hell-bent on revenge. We saw how Moi devastated non-Kalenjins (including Raila) when he came in with the idea of revenge.

8. Secret MOUs have been signed. This is an open secret. With pro-arab support ,Raila has signed on to transform Kenya into a Muslim state, something that would put Kenya at loggerheads with our western donors and partners. This pact is in addition to the creation of a Jimbo la Pwani, where a 10-mile wide strip along the Kenyan coast would be ceded, again, to the Sultans of the gulf, whole will then appoint Balala as Sultan. This will will result in the rest of Kenya being a land locked country. Taxes would levied on anything that comes through the port of Mombasa, including foodstuff. Kenya is predominantly Christian, but with freedom of worship for everybody. We do not need religious bigotry to lead us into faith-based chaos like those in Afghanistan (Taribans), and Sudan (Sharia law).

9. It is do or die for Raila. Even if that means bloodshed. Just the other day, the papers had the picture of Raila inspecting a guard of honor. Since when did a private person in Kenya have a private army? Is this not a signal for his intended take over of power by force? How can Kenyans allow one man to lead us into bloodshed? We lost our fathers, mothers, brothers, sisters and children in the Coup he led in 1982. We say, Not Again!

10. Raila is a Liar and Cannot be trusted. Very true. He tells lies knowing that the Common Mwananchi has no way to verify the truth. Sometimes this is a deft trap to get into a name-calling contest with Kibaki. Recently, Raila has been trying to woo the Muslim Vote by harping on the extradited Kenyan-Somali terrorists. Yet he knows very well that Kenya has extradition treaties with other countries (that is how "Miracle Babies" child slave trader Gilbert Deya will be brought back to Kenya to face the courts). In any case, why should the Kenyan Tax payer spend money on the terrorits's trials when this is not our war?

Please pass this message to all Luos and right-thinking Kenyans. Luos can no longer afford to be alienated from the rest of Kenyans simply for the selfish satisfaction of One Dangerous Man (ODM). We want to make it clear that not all Luos follow Raila senselessly like sheep.

McDouglas Owino

Luos Against Raila Abroad (LARA)

Anonymous said...

im resigned to raila victory but someone needs to tell raila just to keep quiet sometimes coz sometimes he has some unnnecessary outbursts

MainaT said...

-Ve tribalism has been the worst aspect of this general election campaign. The 2nd is the whole over-emotional stuff peeps seem to be throwing at each other. We still need to get on after the election if Kenya is to get on.

NSE-there will be impact depending on the winner.
Tourism-only if violence continues
Economy-Again, it depends on the winner. Its sad to see that many don't realise that economic growth doesn't bear fruit in 5 or 10 years. Just look at China, India, SA all that have had 5+ ecnomic growth over almost 10 years.

mwasjd said...

I figure if everyone keeps a level head, the economy will still grow post 2k7 election. Too much electioneering noise is only a voter bait. Once whoever gets in, I figure lots of noise, but things will quiet down after 3 months. Both ODM and PNU have unfortunately too many skeletons in their closets to go for full scale changes. My opinion.

PS: Welcome back from sabatical (wherever that is)

Anonymous said...

Morning,
I believe this is a blog that pays much attention to the economy. That considered, you are very kind to Raila. We have had extensive debates on him and his possible legacy at http://kenyaimagine.com. I am not in agreement with either you or Bankelele that little is likely to change even after the election, I think a Raila victory will be a dark day.

We are of course all guessing, but I would say that given the numerous anti-market statements the ODM leader has made, considering his extreme ignorance on so many economic issues and most of all considering his tyrannical and interfering attitude, it is very unlikely that Kenya's economy will enjoy anything worth celebrating under Raila.
I mean we all agree that Kibaki has failed in many areas, and rent-seeking still plays too large a role in our economy, but even for those of us who previously detested Kibaki, the spectre of a Raila victory is chasing us into the old man's arms.

Stephen Wainaina
kenyaimagine.com

NSIS said...

Latest Emerging Details

A Disturbing new story has emerged from the Kibaki's birthplace in Nyeri,Kenya. Its a story never told before about the reason for the death of Kibaki's father. Mzee Karauri,speaking to a news reporter in Nairobi in November said that one day in the 1980's,Kibaki had hatched a plot to kill the then president Daniel Moi. A bomb had been placed in a chartered Kenya Airways plane that was to carry the president to a meeting in Ethiopia. Kibaki was responsible. Moi,who had an airtight intelligence network got hind of this plot. The former president was known to hit back hard when betrayed. He announced at the last minute that Kibaki represent him in Ethiopia. Kibaki was terrified. He badly needed a reason not to travel to Ethiopia,and it better be a good one. At about the same time,his father was ailing at a village in Nyeri. Kibaki is reported to have began a well executed plot that ended up with his father being killed. He then called Moi to inform him of his "loss".

Cosequently, Kibaki escaped by sacrificing his father. The bomb was defused, but from then on, Kibaki knew that he owed Moi his life and that he would do Moi's bidding. That's why Kibaki willingly split Kikuyu votes in 92 at Moi's bidding, this was supposed to be the payback for the attempt on Moi.

Anonymous said...

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