(Politically) Is Zimbabwe another Kenya?

Will mugabe "kibaki" the Zimbabweans...

Kenya or Zimbabwe?
Polls where the opposition was hampered at every point.
Opposition claims victory.
Electoral Commission goes 'dark' ostensibly to release 'official' results.
Riot police in the streets.
Opposition wins the majority of parliament seats.
Opposition declares presidential victory.
Incumbent scoffs at Opposition's claim of victory.
Electoral Commission continues leaving Zimbabweans in the dark.

Why don't African countries emulate Botswana where elections are not perfect but relatively fair, corruption is very low & human rights are respected. This translates to economic success where the benefits are for all citizens to enjoy.

I think Botswana follows the Singapore model. Rwanda is also worth looking at for sustainable development and a clean government.

Kenyan gov't is senile...

Why are the Kenyan police tear-gassing peaceful demonstrations?

What is wrong with the government idiots - well, they are idiots... - that they order crackdowns of this nature?

Africa has a disease. It is the Big Man Syndrome. It effects are felt in Zimbabwe & Gabon. In Kenya & Uganda. In Libya & Egypt.

Who do they look upto? Pol Pot?

KPLC - Concerns...

KPLC will 'fire' the managers from Manitoba Hydroelectric. They were worth it. Let's take a look at history.

KPLC & its sharehodlers suffered immensely when samuel gichuru was MD coz he spent more time negotiating kickbacks, marrying (or not) 3 wives & making political hay instead of running KPLC.

Manitoba brought professionalism, reduced corruption, improved infrastructure & increased profits. We can now pay KPLC bills at ATMs, Posta Pay (Post Office), by post & banks (Co-op Bank). The customer service is far better & connections are increasing annually.

My fear is that 'political' appointments will be the powers-that be at KPLC and it will be downhill all over again. We saw this happening during dan 'the thief' moi's era. Some of the currently active politicians were 'suppliers' to KPLC. They want back in.

Some will argue that we do not need expats, my argument is that the transition should be 'natural' i.e. someone trains under the expats. The expats' mandate should include succession. Firms like KPLC that have significant government control tend to play to the politicians' & not the shareholders' or customers' tune.


Paying Manitoba KShs 80-100 million over 2 years is a far better deal than the BILLIONS that KPLC will lose going forward.

The need for efficiency, quick decisions & technical knowledge is needed more than ever since Kenya faces an electricity shortfall. Kenya needs to negotiate complex new power agreements immediately & start building interconnections with various countries including Ethiopia.

Corrupt or inept managers will not do. Period.

Official Safaricom Prospectus is out...

Finally the (online) prospectus that should have available at the launch is now out... there are some restrictions regarding the download but here is the link...

Safaricom Prospectus

BTW, MJ - who I thought was S.African - is a US citizen...

Since most banks will provide shares financing, I expect a substantial over-subscription. Most banks will accept the (expected) refunds & alloted shares as security. Many banks want the interest pre-paid for 45-60 days when you take the loan.

Sampling of banks offering loans:

• Equity - one of the receiving banks has a sweet deal. They lend money that gets back to them immediately with the application. They can re-lend the funds...
  

• CFC Bank - 75% LTV.

• I&M - 75% LTV (max loan is KShs 5mn). They are flexible & great to work with but they do not want 'smaller' loans since they don't have the capacity to handle too many clients.

Transnational - Fanikisha account

There are many more out there... I haven't checked... The banks are limiting the total loans they give for Safaricom to manage risk & liquidity, so apply early... or you will not be able to borrow...

The 'claw-back' from the foreign pool is unlikely since it would require a 200% over-subscription from the domestic pool. This means an extra KShs 65bn has to be applied for before the clawback clause kicks in. Unlikely. Furthrmore, the clawback is proportional meaning its only to the extent the 200% level is maintained.

Mugabe plans a 'Kenya' on Zimbabweans...

Opposition claims early lead...
Delayed results...
Riot police in the streets...

Sounds just like Kenya...

Lean vs Clean

ODM wants a 'LEAN' cabinet.
PNU wants a 'CLEAN' cabinet.

I agree with both sides... coz I want a LEAN & CLEAN cabinet.

Will PNU & ODM listen to me?

Kenyan Politicians...

From the Daily Nation of 31 March 2008

Story by RASNA WARAH Publication Date: 3/31/2008

I DON’T KNOW ABOUT YOU, BUT I am getting rather fed up of seeing our politicians revert to the bad old days of showing off their power through symbols of wealth, such as armoured cars, golfing jaunts and corteges of security personnel (who have a tendency to fly out of moving cars in a show of bravado). It is almost as if they are completely unaware that thousands of women and children are still living in deplorable camps around the country and that almost the entire country is in a state of depression. Frankly, most Kenyans don’t care if their politicians drive the latest Mercedes 500S or an old, beaten-up Toyota pick-up. In fact, given that inequality has been cited as one of the root causes of the recent violence, it appears odd that the leading proponents of equity and justice should now become such blatantly conspicuous consumers of luxury goods. Perhaps this is not so surprising. As Kalundi Serumaga, a Ugandan film producer who lived as a refugee in Kenya in the 1980s, has said, Kenya has a unique capacity to “normalise the abnormal”. How else can we explain the fact that a country where half the population cannot afford to eat more than one meal a day is one of the biggest client bases of the Daimler-Benz corporation? Or that people with an acre of land are killed for their property while those holding on to thousands of acres are not only left alone, but elected to Parliament? I have yet to hear a politician speak about passing a Bill to cut politicians’ salaries – a sore point with many Kenyans – or talking about the reforms that need to be accelerated now that we have a coalition government. All we have heard since February 28 is speculation about who might get which ministerial post and whether each tribe will be represented. Talk about de-ethnicising Kenya has already been forgotten: our politicians, from both sides of the divide, have ensured that ethnicity remains the main criterion for a Government post. In other more developed countries, it is not unusual to see heads of state mingling with ordinary folk or even using public transport.( I was stunned recently to see a photo of Gordon Brown using the London Underground.) This is not to say that politicians don’t deserve security or a relatively comfortable standard of living; the point is, these luxuries should be commensurate with a country’s GDP. So instead of having 100 security officers following them around, why do these leaders not settle for say, 10? Why do they act as if they are running some kind of superpower? AFRICAN LEADERS HAVE NO HANG-ups about hogging taxpayers’ money at the expense of their own populations, the majority of whom are poor. They face no moral dilemmas as they squander their nations’ wealth to make their own lives more comfortable, or to build self-glorifying monuments. This culture of self-aggrandisement has become an epidemic on the continent. Remember Mobutu Sese Seko who built himself eleven “palaces” while his people starved? Or how about the unforgettable Jean-Bedel Bokassa who declared himself “Emperor” of the Central African Republic, and then spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on a coronation ceremony? Is it not a shame that the poorest region in the world has produced some of the most extravagant leaders? When a country goes through a revolution, one of the first things the revolution’s leaders do is to institute reforms immediately in order to capitalise on the changed mood in the country. For instance, when Fidel Castro took over Cuba from the gluttonous General Fulgencio Batista in 1959, the first thing he did was to institute rural land reforms and to make access to health and education the birthright of every Cuban. Whether or not his policies were the right ones is debatable, but through these reforms, Castro managed to gain the loyalty and support of millions of Cubans who were living in grinding poverty. Apart from the implementation of free primary education, no significant reforms took place after Kenya’s 2002 revolution. The moment and the goodwill of Kenyans were wasted as politicians jostled for power or consolidated their personal or political interests. The 2008 revolution, if I may call it that, has also left a bitter taste in the mouths of many Kenyans, who expected to see genuine commitment among leaders to address historical injustices and to bring about greater equity. This may still happen, but the momentum is probably already lost, as it was in 2002. What Kenyans don’t want to see is the establishment of dozens of lengthy, money draining commissions of inquiry, as was done in 2003, which will serve only to gloss over – and bury – some of the more painful truths about how this country has been governed in the last 40 years. Ms Warah is an editor with the UN. The views expressed here are her own and do not necessarily reflect those of the United Nations. (grasp@nbi.ispkenya.com)

Business Daily Online goofs...

Someone please tell the business daily that GTV is not the same as Apple TV...

Grand Coalition showing major cracks...

As expected the cracks in the Grand Coalition have started showing... it all started innocuously when there was a delay in naming the cabinet...

Apparently PNU wants the inconsequential ministries given to ODM. In addition, PNU wants 44 ministries to accommodate its allies including KANU & ODM-K. Even I have to agree with Anyang Nyongo about the "Ministry of Nairobi Metropolitan Development and Implementation of Vision 2030"... Even the Harry Potter books can't come up with such names... yes, truth is stranger than fiction!!!

kibz also has to deal with the deputy premier post... does he favour karua over KANU's uhuru kenyatta?
KANU delivered the 2nd highest number of seats to PNU - more than ODM-K.

In the meantime the Nairobi City Council is facing a strike... in addition to the problems with public transport. Perhaps the potential Minister for Nairobi Metropolitan Development and Implementation of Vision 2030 could help? BTW, all this could be under a pretext to rid John Gakuo...

Crime soars... and is affecting the lifeline of Kenya. The irony is that the Coast Provincial Criminal Investigation Officer, Mr Benard Mate, calls the crimes "normal cases of thuggery"... is he serious? Since when was thuggery normal?

I do support ODM's position on revealing who is behind mobitelea but some comments by ODMers make no sense. There is definitely crooked dealing with the reluctance shown by PNU in dealing with Safaricom's silent owners. My feelings are well documented on this subject.

Is Reliable Stockbrokers reliable?

RSL is being taken to court over 500,000/-. Peanuts but certainly a stain that RSL does not need after they received a conditional (not full) license from the CMA.

Oh, and ODM wants to postpone the SafCon IPO... Why did ODM agree to the IPO without clearing the mobitelea ownership issue?

Nyongo gaffed about the pricing... seriously... he should keep quiet about stuff he has no idea about. So what if SafCon is priced at 5/-? It is the PE Ratio, NAV and other market factors that count! Furthermore, KQ's OFS was at 11.25 not 6/-... If SafCon had only 10bn shares (not 40bn) then the selling price could have been 20/-...

Me thinks ODM was outmaneuvered by kibz... again... I am beginning to think kibz has not lost any of his smarts due to age... or is he taking lessons from dan moi?

Apparently PNU wanted 44 ministries... This is plain crazy. Oh, and give ODM mostly non-consequential ministries!

Anyway, parliament is 'closed' and will reopen around 15 April 2008. Sigh... to be an MP... Of course this means no questions from MPs... the ministers are all from the PNU alliance... raila needs to smell the coffee...

BTW, didn't raila learn the first time around - the MoU of 2002?