I expect the easy pickings to be first to be sold off...
Mumias - Already listed & very profitable with a excellent management team. The government might sell about 92 Million shares in Mumias bringing down its ownership to 20%. This would be the easiest sale/divestiture to accomplish since the shares are traded & the sale does not face the same hurdles as an IPO. Based on the current price, the government can expect almost KShs 5 Billion.
East African Portland Cement - It had been profitable under Ole Mapelu's management team who resigned en masse to protest government interference. Since the firm is listed, it will be an easier sell on the NSE but the debacle has hurt the attractiveness of the firm UNLESS the government becomes a minoirty shareholder. It is not LaFarge's ownership that is a problem but the government's even though it is portrayed as a LaFarge "issue". I would rather have LaFarge as a 42% owner than the government as a 1% owner!
Kenya Re - It has shown profitability in the past 2 years but investors should ask for a THOROUGH assessment of the assets & liabilities.
Eveready Batteries - It has a bad rap coz of declining sales & profits but might be a successful IPO at a fair price.
Safaricom - This would a mega-IPO by Kenyan standards. It faces multiple hurdles since Vodaphone probably has pre-emptive rights. If Vodaphone drops the pre-emptive right in exchange for an additional stake then the IPO can go forward.
I think the government will do an IPO during the electioneering period to energise campaign & boost political goodwill!
Telkom - No IPO until after:
- Safaricom IPO
- Suitable strategic/technical partner is found
- Retrenchment of excess staff (not in an election year)
Thoughts from other bloggers