Blog Archive

Monday, December 04, 2006

Mumias - Prospectus?

Does Mumias have a Prospectus for the current Offer For Sale available in an electronic format?

Does Mumias have a website?

23 comments:

Mitzy said...

@ Coldtusker, I was equally surprised that Mumias has no website! When doing the search however, I came across this , which is an inkling that some company built them a website. That page has a screen shot of what tthe Mumias site should look like. No?

Kudrinketh said...

EU plans to reduce the price of sugar imports from African,carribean and pacific nations(ACP) by 39% for the next 4 yrs

Concidering that sudan exports 29,000 tonnes to EU, i suspect kenya will become a destination for even cheaper imports from sudan.keep in mind the import quota is expiring in 2008.

I dont think Mumias has done enough restructuring.They should have gobbled Tarda a long time ago.

As for the offer,i dont think its attractively priced(it should have been at least 10% cheaper than the 200 day moving average).At this rate its better to place limit orders of Kes.50 instead of gambling on the offer which will be oversubscribed anyways.

I think i'll play this one for the short term,then sell right before everyone starts selling for Kenya Re.Buy after the Kenya Re ipo and hold until 2008.

Anonymous said...

kudri

tell me more about that 200 day moving average

coldtusker said...

mitzy - they did at one time but might have lost the domain name! Rather sad not to have a website!

kudri - EU decision will affect Mumias but not a huge deal. They also plan on cutting EU production so leaves a market for African exports at lower prices.

sudan - If the (S.Sudan) war escalates, then the sugar will not get to Kenya easily. Import quotas can be re-imposed if there is enough political pressure e.g. what Egypt did for Kenya tea.

MSC needs to grow but TARDA is an autonomous entity. No connection. MSC will buy out the "weaker" players first... who are more likely to collapse before Mumias.

Anonymous said...

ct

what info are you looking for from a prospectus?

Kudrinketh said...

@ annon
200 miving average is just the average stock price for the last 200 trading days.Its an important indicator to gauge the direction of a stock.

Anonymous said...

thx

where do you find out about the moving average?

Kudrinketh said...

Kenyan investors do not use such technical analysis so there's no data for moving averages.but you can easily approximate this by adding up daily stock prices for the past 200 days and dividing by 200(very tedious).

I dont think the average kenyan trader needs to keep track of moving averages. i just mentioned it vis-a-vis the mumias offer price.if you look, mumias 200 day moving average is approx. Kes.50
so at 49.50, the offer price is no different than buying at NSE.

Ssembonge said...

If you have the share prices over a period of time you could easily plot your own moving averages using Excel.

Go to Tools - options, data analysis, moving averages. Plug in your data and choose your interval.

Sometimes you have to copy and paste the values in excel over a period of time and build your own database. I do this every evening for US equity markets advances and decline plus the changes in the major indices.

I then do my own 'TA' by ploting the differences which I follow to gauge the market sentiment among other analyses.

http://finance.yahoo.com/advances

pesa tu said...

what happens if there's an oversubscription?

Anonymous said...

kudri

why do you think the offer should be 10% cheaper?

Anonymous said...

ssemb and kudri

how did you guys find out about moving averages. did you read a book?

Ssembonge said...

The more you read financial articles the more you learn. There are also books out there though I prefer news articles over books.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=QCOM&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=m200,m50,m10&a=&c=

Here is a good example of how to use MA.


The 10d MA is lower than the 50d MA which is lower than the 200d MA. The chart has bear written all over it. The 10d crossed the 50d then the 200d around June 06. A reversal would indicate a bullish trend.

I like to use MA's with the other indicators. Always keep an eye on trading volume as nowadays its easy to manipulate stocks.

I still have a long way to go before I can master how to trade properly.

Anonymous said...

ssembonge:

do you work in the financial services sector?

Ssembonge said...

No I'm not in Finance.

Here is an artcle that talks about A/D of the S&P 500

http://usmarket.seekingalpha.com/article/21793

Very similar to what I do with NASDAQ, AMEX and DJIA plus the OTC/BB.

Anonymous said...

i find this stuff very confusing.

where did you start your reading? is there a site for beginners like me?

do you have to be good in mathematics?

Ssembonge said...

The best place to start is reading 10K's.

Once you have a grasp of income statements, balance sheets and cash flow you'll be fine.

Also you need to keep an eye on financial news. Economic indicators mean a lot. Like most things, experience is the best teacher. With time you will get better.

A good starting point is your local library. They should have books that are good for beginners.

Anonymous said...

what are 10ks?

Anonymous said...

ssembonge:

What are economic indicators? Can I buy or rent financial news in Kenya if so where and how much is it to buy or rent?

Anonymous said...

ssembonge

i like money, but i hate reading business news. i find it boring. are there any places with very short articles that i can scan for info?

Mjuaji said...

What the F! is going on here - with Mr. Anon - kwani where were you born? or rather how stupid are you. Useless wewe. Some questions yenyewe - you will scare even the smartest people in the room.


LOL! I can't stop cracking over this whole Anon/ssembonge discussion.

This is first hand humor.
Anon - can you read? how about write? I would love to meet you?

baadaye,
Mjuaji

coldtusker said...

Mjuaji - LMAO...

I think I might disable the anon feature but it (sometimes) makes for interesting reading!

I avoid responding to "anon/s"...

Luv your take on it!

Holy Cow said...

@CT
I finally got the link to the Mumias prospectus. Check the link below.
http://www.nairobist.com/stocks/financials/mumias/Mumias_Prospectus.pdf

If it doesnt work, just go to www.nairobist.com/pblog/
That piece on Anon and ssembonge got me reeling with laughter.
@Mjuaji, you are very funny. Do you have a blog??ROTFLOL