Monday, June 20, 2011

Thoughts on Kenya's 2011 Budget &/or Ministerial Statement

*** Guest Post by Nikhil Hira - Tax Partner at Deloitte Deloitte & Touché Kenya

Well another budget season comes to an end - or has it? We heard Hon. Uhuru Kenyatta deliver his Budget speech (or was it a Ministerial Statement?) on 8 June 2011 amid considerable confusion. It really seems to me that clarity is needed on the New Constitution and what it really means during the Transition as we head towards its full implementation. Ever since the Referendum in August 2010, there have been several instances of us moving to the cliff's edge with one foot over only to be pulled back. This isn't the way to attract the investment we want and need. Indeed if we continue in this vein we will increasingly become the laughing stock of the world.

Enough about the Constitution, let's turn to the budget that was or, perhaps, never was. We are now in the midst of the 21 day period that the Speaker of the House set for public input. What surprises me is that, as of Friday last week, no guidelines had been given as to how this process is supposed to work. Nevertheless, I intend to submit my thoughts on the proposals announced on 8 June. Overall the tax measures were a mixed bag of innovative to the down right impractical.

To me the introduction of the tax free status for Real Estate Investment Trusts albeit from 1 January 2012 was extremely innovative and forward thinking although it remains to be seen what the detailed guidelines will contain. Of course what concerns me is who will actually benefit from this wonderful idea - let's hope it doesn't result in a major scam! By the way, I was asked the other day whether a development of 2 houses on a small plot of land could be set up as a REIT. Well I suppose we will have to wait for the guidelines but I can't see this being possible.

On the other extreme the various measures introduced for personal tax. Great in theory but in practice........

The abolition of the requirement for the employed class to file returns if their only income is taxed under PAYE, was great to hear - after all it means less red tape. But how is to work and given our propensity to evade tax, isn't it likely that a number of people will do just that? It seems the onus is back on the KRA to find and catch the evaders and with a system that is already under strain, one wonders how practical it is.

Similarly, the measure to prevent the use of the Personal Relief (that princely sum of Kshs 1,162 per month) more than once is a great idea but who is responsible for enforcing it and who will be responsible if misused - the first employer, subsequent employers or the employee. It really seems minimal thought went into it. May I suggest some guidelines from KRA or we will all be like the proverbial dog trying to catch it's tail! I understand Rwanda has a scheme for nominating the Principal Employer and in this day and age of info sharing, why not talk to them?

Which conveniently brings me on to the information exchange agreements. Those of you with cross border transactions with related parties, be prepared. - all the revenue authorities are going to be talking about you and it is unlikely to be all good. And even if you don't fall into this category of taxpayer, you will be caught under this sharing arrangement if you have other sources of income cross border so beware!

Then my biggest bug bear - the doubling of WHT on professional fees from 5% to 10%. One of those shock and awe moments for me at least! My, and other suppliers of management and professional fees, cash flow is going to take a severe hit. Add to this the continuing saga of withholding VAT and I must say this measure is entirely counter-productive. It's not going to work I'm afraid.

No reduction in tax rates once again, indeed not since 2005, leaves the taxpayer worse off given inflation. Why this fear of reducing tax rates I am not sure but we have historic evidence of what they can do to collections. I hope the Budgetary Committee takes note of this and pushes for it before Finance Bill 2011 becomes an Act.

Sunday, June 12, 2011

Travel chaos at JKIA after power blackout

Click the link on the subject header for the article.

Operations at the Jomo Kenyatta International Airport were thrown into disarray as aeroplanes could not land or take off for several hours.

The air traffic closure, from 5.30 pm until after 8 pm on Saturday was occasioned by a power blackout, according to the Kenya Civil Aviation Authority.

An aircraft was diverted to Entebbe airport in Uganda while the rest were forced to land in Mombasa and Kisumu during the time.

Others that were due for take off were delayed at the airport in Nairobi.

The Authority’s public relations officer Mutia Mwandikwa said the interruption stalled the entire computer system, including the runway lights.

“After the power failure, the back-up system also failed to start immediately. The UPS (uninterruptible power supply system) took some time before it was fixed,” he said.

During the time passengers were stranded while airlines were forced to adjust their schedules.

Mr Mwandikwa said normal operations at the airport resumed at 8 pm.

Someone needs to be fired or sued. Here is my take:

Someone in the earlier management [perhaps even current management] was paid off to install a crappy UPS system. So when push came to shove, it did not work!

UPS systems need batteries & these must be maintained but I would venture someone was sleeping on the job while being slipped a few coins!

The cost to airlines to divert planes to other airports is HUGE. There are costs for additional fuel to/from NBO + crew costs + upset passengers + wear & tear on aircraft + delayed schedules, etc!

Thursday, May 12, 2011

KRA's Simba System is down!

In addition to the current problems Kenyans faces with the Fuel shortages caused due to possible corruption & ineptness at KPC, we have the problems at the inefficient KPRL.

Now... add KRA to the list of GoK entities who add to the problem!

http://www.nation.co.ke/business/news/Technical+glitch+paralyses+KRAs+tax+clearance+system/-/1006/1161276/-/q7m4x/-/index.html

Simba System is the online clearance/taxation system used by KRA. I support the move to an electronic platform but users complain it is no longer up to the task with frequent breakdowns & connectivity problems.

Simba is having problems. Again. So even when fuel importers want to clear products through Simba, they cannot do so!

For traders, however, they are likely to count losses as Ms Memo said KRA would not reimburse costs incurred during the period the system is down.

Sigh, so KRA messes up & the consumers have to pay???

What does this mean?
- Greater lead times to get fuel to the fuel stations!
- Increased costs for OMCs [since most fuel is traded on borrowed funds]
- Increased costs as fuel trucks wait longer to load.
- Possible stockouts leading to increased costs across the board.
- Reduced tax collection by KRA with some losses which cannot be recovered!

Solution: No short-term solutions but Simba needs to be replaced or strengthened. Let ICPAK, Stakeholders & ICT Board have input on how to improve the stability & abilities of Simba [or help choose its replacement].

"Ghost" firms allocated ullage at KPC

It just gets more interesting [euphemism for oh crap!] at KPC...

So when Kenyans started peering intently into who the allotees of ullage were at KPC, some smart chap came up with an idea! How about using fake 'Ugandan' firms?

On 17-Feb-2011, a firm called 'Black Gold' [So Tintin-like as Bankelele would say] got an allocation for 2,697 MT of fuel.
Now, compare BG's allocation to these legit firms with retail operations in Uganda:
  • Total Uganda 2,911 MT
  • Libya Oil Uganda 345 MT
  • Shell Uganda 1,750 MT
  • KenolKobil 1,000 MT
  • Gulf Energy 2,632 MT [Yes, that Gulf]
The ship (MT NAVIG8 HONOR) discharged 26,776 MT of fuel & 10% of storage was allocated to Black Gold. Another interesting factoid is that the shipment was brought in by Gulf Energy.

Questions:
1) Did Black Gold evacuate the tanks? When?
2) Did Black Gold export the fuel to Uganda? When?

Wednesday, May 11, 2011

Kenya's Oil Industry - The Unholy Trio

Under the proud eye of the parent Ministry of Energy... the bad boys trio of Kenya's Oil/Fuel Sector!

Kenya Pipeline Company - After the KenolKobil & Glencore cases are done... Kenyan taxpayers will lose anything from KES 5-10 billion!

See earlier blog posts

National Oil Company of Kenya

Kenya Petroleum Refineries Limited

Petrol Shortages in Kenya - May 2011 Part 6

You heard it here first!

Rumors are rife that there are 2 more EMERGENCY TENDERS being floated tomorrow for imports of Diesel/Gasoil (AGO) & Super Petrol (PMS) tomorrow!

This will add to the crazy prices Kenyans are already paying since emergency shipments cost more just like many other 'urgent' tasks!

This second round of emergency tenders in May is after the 1st one a few days earlier!

More interesting stuff! KenolKobil refutes claims & allegations of delayed delivery by MoE for PMS shipments. Apparently, KK was restricted in supplying PMS as required by OTS due to KPC ullage constraints!

15,290 MT of PMS for delivery 10-11 June 2011 [At least 1 month off!]
31,355 MT of AGO for delivery 01-03 July 2011 [Good coz not so much of an emergency but still not part of the regular OTS imports]

Kenya Pipeline Company - Bankrupt? May 2011 Update

This was my earlier post on KPC's impending bankruptcy...

Glencore wants $40 million from KPC for products that 'disappeared' while under KPC's watch!

KenolKobil has a case winding its way through the courts for KES 4-6 billion [depending on the version]. KPC has appealed the verdict to award KK loads of moolah but KK has doggedly refused to be intimidated by KPC, MoE or other goons!

It is just a matter of time before KPC is forced to enter into a settlement with the various litigants!

Monday, May 09, 2011

Petrol Shortages in Kenya - May 2011 Part 4

5 May 2011: kiraitu murungi [Kenya's Minister of Energy] said there were 67mn liters of PMS [Premium Motor Spirit aka Super Petrol], 99mn liters of diesel [AGO] and 102mn liters of Kerosene in KPC's system. [Source: Nation Business Reporter per the Press Briefing on 5 May 2011]

9 May 2011: MoE floats an "Emergency" Tender for the supply of 47 million liters of petrol through OTS [35,000 MT] for delivery between 17-21 May.

So the questions/observations are as follows:
  • Why float an Emergency Tender if there is plenty of petrol in the system? Kenya uses 3mn liters of PMS then 67/3 = 22 days of petrol.
  • Emergency Tenders tend to be pricier since the 'urgency' means paying higher rates for a ship or cargo than under normal circumstances.
  • If the purchase/delivered price uses the May PLATT average (higher than April PLATT average price) then Kenyans are in for another price hike come 15 May 2011 for petrol.
  • Which firms products [especially PMS] are clogging the KPC system?
  • Why haven't these firms been forced to evacuate the products from KPC tanks?
  • Will these firms be allowed to bid for the Emergency Tender?
  • What if these firms bid, win & supply the products ALREADY in the KPC tanks?
Oil marketers have faulted the process, saying, it would not be competitive. "Since the supply is an emergency, there is little time to get a competitive bid,” a leading oil marketer told the Nation.Others warned that this could push up the prices further.

However, KPC has maintained it was wet with the product, meaning, it had enough stocks of the popular super petrol.

MoE controls ullage [storage] at KPC & the OTS tender process which means they have the inside track of who imports what & when. KPC is 100% owned by GoK & controlled by MoE.


With private imports by individual marketers restricted, all players must patiently wait to get supplies from the next OTS tender, even when their customers want more.

The only exception are the rare cases where politically-favoured importers are allowed to bring in product from outside the system.

Access to the only pipeline is regulated by an ullage committee under the oversight of the ministry of Energy.


Another interesting article from The Standard

Kenol(Kobil) General Manager David Ohana confirmed marketers do not know the source of the consignment held in KPC facilities, which he says, had denied them chance to offload their imports currently in the high seas and attracting demurrage of US$40,000 (Sh3.3 million) daily.

So legitimate imports cannot be off-loaded while the tanks are full yet there is a 'shortage'???


For instance, it emerged on Wednesday that of the 19 million litres of petrol sitting in KPC tanks as wananchi were suffering, the largest proportion belonged to trading companies with no marketing outlets.

They were Addax Kenya Ltd, Royal Energy Ltd , Gulf Oil and an importer who signed as “one time vendor”.

How these small players came to hold so much petrol within KPC’s systems at a time when the rest of the industry was dry remains a puzzle.

The Ministry of Energy co-ordinates the so-called ullage committee that decides how to allocate space in KPC storage facilities to oil companies.

Sunday, May 08, 2011

Kenya National Budget 2011. Your Budget.

Dear Kenyans,

You can participate in the process of developing the Budget for 2011-12 through this form/website to provide information & views to Treasury by clicking the link or Subject Header.

The link was down earlier but after I tweeted Uhuru Kenyatta it was back up & running! The power of social media!!!

A new Stock Exchange for Nairobi

Why is GoK & CMA jerking around with the NSE?
If the brokers think the NSE is worth much more than what the GoK/CMA thinks it is, then let investors open up a COMPETITOR asap!

In the USA, there were many exchanges to begin with including the NYSE (founded in 1792), Philadelphia Exchange, American Stock Exchange & Chicago Stock Exchange. Not to forget NASDAQ (founded 1971) which was derided as 2nd Class but over time attracted the likes of Intel & Microsoft!

I know there have been proposals in front of the CMA for years to license another Exchange but the powerful mandarins & current stockbrokers have uses their influence to kill it! For this Kenyans pay much higher fees to support an inefficient system!

Let another exchange come into play. There are 100s of firms that will list in the next 5 years. What's more? The new exchange will be completely electronic & allow investors better tools to trade unlike the current system!

I have a strong feeling some listed firms will even jump over to the new Exchange!