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Thursday, September 21, 2006

Party Pooper....

In an earlier entry I asked when the party will end & well, it seems, the festivities have taken a breather (no, I was not responsible) after the relentless rise for the past 2 weeks...

The NSE index dropped over 106 points today but it doesn't reflect the entire market but there are some prime movers:
  • NBK was down 9.63% to 61/- & I expect a further drop since there are few fundamentals underlying the price. There is speculation as to the "Bad Debt Bond" which will be used to clean out the NPLs on NBK's books.
  • KQ was down 8% to 134/- which is where it stood on Sep 19. Someone made some good money! I expect volatility since their 1H 2006-7 results are due in Oct.
  • KPLC was down 8% to 250/-. This was 22/-! Well, there was an amazing rise in the price as the Final 2005-6 results are awaited. They will probably be released by Sep 30 (90 days after the year end is standard).
  • EA Portland Cement was down 8% to 130/-. Their poor results for 2005-6 were to blame. The 2H period was very poor. EAPCC had fired its dynamic CEO (Ole Mapelu) earlier in the year. I wonder if the 2H loss would be attributable to his sacking.
Some price Laggards have shown some surprising resilience including Marshalls (+10%), Scangroup (+5%) & Sameer (+4.6%). Apart from Scangroup, the other two are relatively quiet esp Marshalls!

So where from here... well, I hazard a guess... the "overpriced" stocks will continue falling while the institutions will return to the party for the "strong" firms at reasonable prices...

We will see a Dead Cat Bounce" before a breakout either up or down...


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2 comments:

Ryan Shen-Hoover said...

Nice call, Tusker. Do you see any bargains on the NSE right now?

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