Blog Archive

Saturday, January 17, 2009

Why would anyone take Kenyans seriously?

#1 - According to Daily Nation: "Economic secretary Geoffrey Mwau said although Kenya has not felt the effects of the global financial crisis, lack of corporate governance in shares dealings poses a great risk."

Wow... I would have never guessed! So the drop in tourists, lower prices for tea, flowers, depreciation of the KSh vs US$... wow... not a result of the GFC?

And CBK governor was claiming 7% growth for Kenya in 2008. I have not heard from him in a while. Perhaps indigestion after gorging on humble pie?

#2 - Back to donors with a begging bowl... while scams 'exposed' in the past 4 weeks account for KShs 15bn.
- 8bn for the KPC-Triton scam coz govt (aka taxpayers) will bail out KPC.
- 1bn for the NCPB maize theft/scandals.
- 6bn for 'over-billing' for the pipeline extensions/expansion/enhancement - chinese firm implicated.
- Great cartoon in the DN
- Trips to USA for Obama's inauguration
- Other junkets by politicians while in the USA

#3 - Corruption - The next frontier - Chinese & Libyan connections
I am worried about corruption in Kenya but it seems to be going a notch higher with the chinese & libyan firms. Since these firms are state controlled, you might as well give up hope on getting information from the chinese or libyans to fight the scams!


Lord said...

This is IT. Its how far this country can go on with these kind of looting.. In real countries would have PAID.....Whats wrong with us ?....

Signed nicely and am now here .
the same Lord as in KE blog

coldtusker said...

Lord: Welcome. I know the layout/setup is different from wordpress (that KE uses) but hopefully it works for you.

MainaT said...

Sisemi kitu. Hapo umeongea.

Btw, the way kibz sell things, I think some of us are going to be sold before Kibz leaves in 2012.

If these 5 years don't produce a coup I don't what will.

PKW said...

I stand to be corrected but I do THINK (as opposed to KNOW) that the effect of the GFC on Kenya and other developing countries may be minimal as we are mostly a commodity based country, with a negative balance of trade (bad in itself, but minimizes the effect of a fall in exports, but 'good' in the face of falling commodity prices).
Definitely aid is going to be less, but if only 1% of every aid dollar gets to 'the ground',well?
Corruption is definitely our undoing.

coldtusker said...

MainaT: Coup? I don't think so... but I was wrong about the 2007 election... I thought it would be peaceful...

I expect the GNU to collapse. We need a new election but monitored by a credible foreign institution!

Forget 'sovereignty' but we need peaceful change!

coldtusker said...

PKW: I think you are mistaken...

YES, we have been affected by the GFC.

1) Our imports are a given. Non-elastic. We are lucky that Oil prices have fallen coz its our largest import bill.

2) Our exports (forex earners) are tourism, tea & horticulture. All have fallen in US$ prices.

3) We import all sort of other stuff that we need e.g. cars, machinery, etc. Even though prices have dropped, the overall effect hurts us since we need to export to pay for them.

All in all... we have ALREADY been hit... but we can grow our dominance in the regional market IF we get corruption under control. Pipe dream?

PKW said...

CT: Now you're putting me on the defensive-I never did say that we haven't been (or won't be) affected, but rather that the effect of the GFC on us and other developing countries may be minimal even in the long term. Fact is, we did grow in 2008,though the % by which we grew depends on the source. Those other developed ones have been talking the R (recession) word for a while now. See what I mean? If there is no election this year (hence no PEV???)I think it'll be even brighter. 4 Real! At least as far as I'm concerned.

coldtusker said...

PKW: Oh, I also feel that the effect will not be as much for us but Kenya needs to go regional... even more so... and when the good times come back, we will be ready for some great growth!

ke said...


What is kenya going to export regionally?

Other African countries (like Kenya itself) are also importing cheap goods from China. So, unless Kenya can itself produce these same goods at cheaper prices, they will not be able to grow regionally.

Yes, corruption is a problem, but a more fundamental problem is the lack of real and efficient manufacturing base.

PKW said...

CT; Great point. I read the UG's 2008/2009 budget last Wednesday and they say that even when exports grow, trade with countries in the region (EAC, COMESA, and SADC countries) grow at a snail's pace. That's how we all get hit by the GFC b/c when the exports fall (against inelastic imports), we feel it.

But you guys (i.e. CT and KE) are so pessimistic about Kenya, and Africa at large, why? I secretly refer to you as the Resident Pessimist and Non-resident Pessimist respectively. That's what I was considering for your links on my blogroll, once I have one.

coldtusker said...

KE: No, its corruption first.

A 'clean' country plans its growth & future e.g. Singapore that had no natural resources BUT a smart & clean PM (LKY) when we had the ultimate land grabber (crooked wa ngengi).

Others are Japan, S.Korea...

Kenya is a re-exporter of many goods esp light manufacturing & oil products e.g. lubricants. Kenya has the capacity to become the main supplier of 'prepared' food items to E & C Africa.

It is unlikely Kenya will become a Japan in my lifetime but who knows?

PKW: Actually, I am quite an optimist BUT I do not know what happened to the kibz of 2002-3.

Why did he support (or not impede) anglo-fleecing?

We need CLEAN leadership!

E-Nyce said...

PKW: you wouldn't also be 'jm21'?

Only one reason Kenya has not been and is not an "Asian Tiger" of Africa:

We all know this.

Everybody has corruption, even US & China, but they don't let it disable their economies.

PKW said...

E-Nyce: I ain't got the slightest clue what/who you talking about.

coldtusker said...

E-Nyce: It is only idiots who claim that corruption should be tolerated in Kenya since there is corruption in other countries...

Corruption in 'western' countries is miniscule compared to their GDP.

I expect the KPC-Triton scam will cost at least KShs 10bn which is 1% of our GDP. Subtract 1% from 4.5% growth & you reduce growth by 33%... due to 1 scandal...

Add the maize scam among the other scams (roads, buildings, airport, etc)... and we halve our rate of growth!

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