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Thursday, November 23, 2006

What is 10% of Safaricom worth?

Let's value Safaricom...

2005-6 Profit After Tax = KES 8.4 Billion.
Fast growing firm with new products esp "banking" thus I will give it a P/E of 20.

8.4 x 20 = KES 168 Billion (US$2.4 Billion)
Mobitelea "stole" 10% = KES 16.8 Billion (US$ 240,000,000)

Kenyan population = approx 33 Million

So moi & kanu & cronies STOLE.... 509/- from EACH Kenyan....

Yes... - I, you & him/her have been screwed out of 509/-....

12 comments:

pesa tu said...

How did you arrive at the conclusion that KANU did us in?
Any smoking gun? At least point us in the right direction

coldtusker said...

Fellow bloggers - help me out here...

I will list my reasons later...

kenyanentrepreneur said...

I'll help you out:

kenya is a corrupt country. it has a gangster economy - if you are not a gangster (re: politician) you will not make it. that's how amos wako is worth $100 million dollars. he is a gangster.

now, move on and invest elsewhere in the world. it's a global economy. forget about kenya, unless of course, you are willing to become a gangster.

Kudrinketh said...

@pesa tu
I know you're not that naive to think Moi is innocent, and that there's some logical explanation for all of this.Kwani you want a freaking video of that nyan'gau stealing our money.Or are you just playing devils advocate?

@KE
You're fortunate to have access to foreign markets,how bout people in Kenya,be real.For your information,the so called developed nations have nearly flat equity returns whilst the 'corrupt' emerging markets keep roaring.Bout time you showed us your portfolio.

@CT
you're being too concervative,going by the runaway P/E ratios in the NSE,safaricom's real P/E would probably be over 35.

kenyanentrepreneur said...

kudri...

if you have access to the internet (as CT does) you can invest anywhere in the world. you are the one who needs to get real.

besides, I would not classify kenya as an emerging market - it's just not there yet. look at the list of emerging markets at the back of the economist magazine. the only african country listed is SA.

Ssembonge said...

CT, you erred in your calculations.

KES 8.4b is not EPS. Until they issue out shares it's going to be hard to know its true worth.

Was the $10m for 5% a steal for Vodafone?

Using the same numbers, Safcoms value is

$10m x 100/5 = $200 m for Safcom

$200m x KES 72 = KES14.4b

Can anyone remember how much the 9% the govt wants to download is worth?

BTW Vodafone is selling its 25% stake in Swisscom. Vodafone is pulling out from less profitable markets. I doubt if they'll pull out from Kenya considering they are making some money, though peanuts for them. So far they have pulled out of Germany and Japan.

coldtusker said...

Ssembonge - Pls re-read my entry. Never did I say EPS was 8.4 Billion.

ke - Egypt is also listed. Kenya would be a FRONTIER market.

kudri - At P/E of 35, I might be selling Safaricom! In any event, my point is that every man, woman & child has been screwed by moi, kanu & cronies.

I will wait for more responses from other bloggers before I list my reasons.

Kudrinketh said...

KE
Do you even have a brokerage account? At minimum,the Fed requires a valid social security number and a physical address to prevent money laundering and terrorism.

Even among developed nations,cross trading is very difficult.Why do you think NYSE deperately wants to buy LSE?At least US investors can buy foreign mutual funds or ETFs.

I'm not aware of any Kenyan mutual funds that invest in purely foreign equities(Old Mutual invests up to 10% in their unit trust funds,thats as much foreign exposure you'll get)

So what would you classify kenya as?,oh i know,corrupt with gangster economy.Economist list is just their opinion,how about having your own opinion without relying on magazines.

Ssembonge said...

CT,
I wasn't sure why you multiplied 8.4 B with the PE.


I have remembered the govt valued Safcom at over $1b, vodafone felt it is worth less.

pesa tu said...

@Kudrinketh:No not a videotape.But circumstantial evidence e.g. Mr X owns company Y and Mr.X was the regulator for the sector at the time.

You can get into JsE and any other market from here by two ways:
1. Local brokers have linkages with overseas ones BUT will only touch a minimum of Sh500,000 for JSE and sh1,000,000 for LSE

2.U can contact brokers out there and deal with them direct.Kinda like the way Diaspora Kenyand deal with our local ones.

@KE: we have our problems but dont be overpessimistic just coz u cant see the opportunities here.

Kudrinketh said...

@Pesa tu
It would make sense to conclude that once the books are openned for inspection.both the govt and vodafone refuse to do so.with Moi,he's presumed guilty until proved innocent(if ever).

Keep in mind though that diaspora kenyan contacting kenyan brokers is not the same as kenyans in nairobi contacting american or european brokers.Diaspora kenyans are also kenyan citizens whirlst kenyans in nairobi are not american citizens/PR.

kenyanentrepreneur said...

I'm not being over pessimistic about kenya. I'm just being realistic. If a guy like Amos Wako can steal $100 million dollars, that suggests a system that is totally skewed.

how do you compete in such a skewed system?