Blog Archive

Thursday, November 23, 2006

What is 10% of Safaricom worth?

Let's value Safaricom...

2005-6 Profit After Tax = KES 8.4 Billion.
Fast growing firm with new products esp "banking" thus I will give it a P/E of 20.

8.4 x 20 = KES 168 Billion (US$2.4 Billion)
Mobitelea "stole" 10% = KES 16.8 Billion (US$ 240,000,000)

Kenyan population = approx 33 Million

So moi & kanu & cronies STOLE.... 509/- from EACH Kenyan....

Yes... - I, you & him/her have been screwed out of 509/-....

9 comments:

pesa tu said...

How did you arrive at the conclusion that KANU did us in?
Any smoking gun? At least point us in the right direction

coldtusker said...

Fellow bloggers - help me out here...

I will list my reasons later...

Baltic Amber said...

I'll help you out:

kenya is a corrupt country. it has a gangster economy - if you are not a gangster (re: politician) you will not make it. that's how amos wako is worth $100 million dollars. he is a gangster.

now, move on and invest elsewhere in the world. it's a global economy. forget about kenya, unless of course, you are willing to become a gangster.

Baltic Amber said...

kudri...

if you have access to the internet (as CT does) you can invest anywhere in the world. you are the one who needs to get real.

besides, I would not classify kenya as an emerging market - it's just not there yet. look at the list of emerging markets at the back of the economist magazine. the only african country listed is SA.

Anonymous said...

CT, you erred in your calculations.

KES 8.4b is not EPS. Until they issue out shares it's going to be hard to know its true worth.

Was the $10m for 5% a steal for Vodafone?

Using the same numbers, Safcoms value is

$10m x 100/5 = $200 m for Safcom

$200m x KES 72 = KES14.4b

Can anyone remember how much the 9% the govt wants to download is worth?

BTW Vodafone is selling its 25% stake in Swisscom. Vodafone is pulling out from less profitable markets. I doubt if they'll pull out from Kenya considering they are making some money, though peanuts for them. So far they have pulled out of Germany and Japan.

coldtusker said...

Ssembonge - Pls re-read my entry. Never did I say EPS was 8.4 Billion.

ke - Egypt is also listed. Kenya would be a FRONTIER market.

kudri - At P/E of 35, I might be selling Safaricom! In any event, my point is that every man, woman & child has been screwed by moi, kanu & cronies.

I will wait for more responses from other bloggers before I list my reasons.

Anonymous said...

CT,
I wasn't sure why you multiplied 8.4 B with the PE.


I have remembered the govt valued Safcom at over $1b, vodafone felt it is worth less.

pesa tu said...

@Kudrinketh:No not a videotape.But circumstantial evidence e.g. Mr X owns company Y and Mr.X was the regulator for the sector at the time.

You can get into JsE and any other market from here by two ways:
1. Local brokers have linkages with overseas ones BUT will only touch a minimum of Sh500,000 for JSE and sh1,000,000 for LSE

2.U can contact brokers out there and deal with them direct.Kinda like the way Diaspora Kenyand deal with our local ones.

@KE: we have our problems but dont be overpessimistic just coz u cant see the opportunities here.

Baltic Amber said...

I'm not being over pessimistic about kenya. I'm just being realistic. If a guy like Amos Wako can steal $100 million dollars, that suggests a system that is totally skewed.

how do you compete in such a skewed system?