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- KQ has very profitable 3Q 2008-9
- Uganda Banking Sector
- Corruption at KPC continues unabated - Higher fuel...
- Discredited ECK employees to get 500 million
- Mega-corruption at the Central Bank of Kenya
- Rwanda - The New Hope of Africa
- Am I a fool for not stealing?
- He is back... Corruption in Kenya... Aluta Continu...
- Is Africa cursed?
- The Top 20 African Billionaires
- Congrats to Obama & what Africa can learn...
- Why would anyone take Kenyans seriously?
- Kenya Airports Authority - Coldtusker vindicated -...
- Price Controls & favoritism for NOCK - More future...
- KPC-Triton Scam: Daily Nation makes a faux pas... ...
- Weekly Citizen's take on KPC-Triton scam
- Kenya's reliability suffers blow after KPC scam
- Scandal rocks KPC - Coldtusker told you...
- Triton - KPC alledgely in cahoots with Triton
- Where hither the Kenya Shilling?
- Coldtusker is Twittering
- Novelty in the airline industry - airtime for flig...
- Kenya Ferries Ltd - Ferries stall - Deja Vu
- CBK governor & his pies in the sky (and a MONSTER ...
- Kenyan Government Officials overpaid?
- Government Blunders/Corruption continues in Fuel S...
- France's First Ladies...
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Friday, January 30, 2009
KQ made 2x in 3Q (Kes 3.035bn PBT) compared to entire 1H (Kes 1.05 PBT)...
Due to the post-election violence, KQ's pax numbers were very low in 1Q (Apr-Jun 2008). The 2Q (May-Sep 2008) was merely catch-up but the after-effects still lingered.
Then came 3Q with (much) lower oil prices as well as the strong US$... but since KQ prices most tix in US$, the overall effect has been a surge in Kes profits...
KQ faces challenges in 4Q coz of the GFC but the most profitable business remains the African business... they should continue expanding in Africa even if it the destinations make losses at first... KQ should start agrressively targetting S. African markets & beat up SAA while they are down!
Oil prices should be lower than 2008 though we have seen jet fuel shortages in Kenya coz of the thieves at KPC.
BOTTOMLINE: I expect EPS of 7.50 for 2008-9. By my estimates the NAV is over 62/- So its trading at P/B of 0.4 and forward PER of 3.5... this is a steal!
And there is the Obama business... perhaps time expedite the expansion of the Kisumu airport... Obama is a-coming at some point!
Prior posts on KQ or related subjects...
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Uganda will start 'producing' oil - primarily sour, heavy & waxy (the lowest quality!) - in 2010.
Ugandans should not expect 'cheap' petrol but it will definitely help reducing the cost of heavy diesel for Ugandan industry & energy production. There are plans to build a refinery as well. Maybe even export the products to S.Sudan, Rwanda & DRC.
Since oil production has been 'privatised' I expect production to start more or less on schedule. I do not know the break-even cost for this oil BUT Uganda will have an additional source of energy except hydro at Jinja.
The Bujangali Dam being built by/under AKFED will also boost Uganda's economy. I like AKFED. They do good work in African countries by building capacity. AKFED firms include Diamond Trust, Jubilee, Nation Media & TPSEA.
KES 1 = UGX 25
USD 1 = UGX 1990
Here's a look at listed banks
Bank of Baroda (Uganda) - Unlike BoB(Kenya), they are public (20% float). They even released unaudited 2008 numbers by 16 Jan 2009. Imagine that! Anyway, they last traded at UGX 405. The 2008 EPS estimated at 37. Very conservative bank thus low NPAs & great ratios for capital adequacy. Also owns prime property in the middle of Kampala's CBD. Low 2008 PE = 11. They have never had an unprofitable year since they listed.
DFCU - Controlled by Actis (former CDC). New CEO appointed in 2008. Major scandal & losses hit DFCU in 2007. Trying to be the Equity Bank of Uganda.
Equity Bank (parent listed in Kenya)- Purchased UML with 30 branches. Rebranding to EBL. It will shake up the sector. Competitors are already on edge!
KCB (cross-listed) - They came in the market with a bang but concentration seems on cross-border business.
Stanbic Uganda - Huge over-subscription during the IPO thanks to Kenyans. Seems priced well on a P/E basis but not as entrepreneurial as DFCU nor conservative as BoBU nor aggressive as DTB. Controls a huge chunk of the market thanks to its purchase of Uganda Commercial Bank - Uganda's then largest bank. Expect severe competition from DFCU & Equity Bank for the mass market. Corporate & SME business under threat from DTB & Crane Bank. Cross-border business under pressure from DTB & KCB. Standard Chartered & Barclays (bought out Nile Bank) are also in the market.
Diamond Trust Bank (parent listed in Kenya) - SME market & aggressive. AKFED investments in Uganda will boost DTB's profile. Also aims for the corporate market.
Conclusion: Get in before its too late!
Monday, January 26, 2009
1) Banks will not lend to many oil firms OR will do so at much higher costs.
2) Ullage allocation favoritism at KPC's KOSF.
3) Demurrage charges to add to fuel costs.
4) Government corruption unabated even after Triton collapsed. High-level corruption?
5) Inefficient government owned Oil Marketer to be favoured over others. More corruption?
Sunday, January 25, 2009
kivuitu is slated to get KShs 25 million. The government claims there is no money for development or for teachers but wants to pay sam 'I cannot count' kivuitu KShs 25,000,000/-. People are dying of starvation & the govt refuses to pay farmers a fair price for their maize.
Is kibaki trying to pay off kivuitu for his silence on election irregularities?
If ECK thinks it is being shortchanged, then go to court. Do NOT pay them!
BUT what do you expect from Kenya's morally bereft politicians?
kibz makes more than Obama. The USA has an economy at least 800x larger than Kenya’s!
raila makes more than Gordon Brown. The UK’s economy is at least 100x larger than Kenya’s!
And then they go to BEG for food aid!!! If I were a donor, I would say go to hell for more aid. You draw obscene salaries & are bloody corrupt. Let your people starve coz then they may see the need to change the government!
Why does the (corrupt) government of Kenya allow M-Pesa to continue operating & grow in size but the CBK does not allow Zain to launch Zap?
1) Zain refused to pay-off ndungu & his ilk. They followed in the footsteps of YU (Econet) who fought it out in court for the 3rd mobile license.
2) SafCon has powerful politicians as part one of the major shareholders (Mobitelea) who know that delaying Zain's entry will make M-Pesa the entrenched first-mover.
3) This is a government of the corrupt. No pay, no play.
If the CBK is truly concerned about M-Pesa, then they should suspend the service BUT Safaricom's M-Pesa has been given a CLEAN BILL OF HEALTH & is signing up M-Pesa dealers with CBK's tacit approval to stymie Zap when it comes in.
Other links on the Grand Rip Off
The Grand Rip Off
ndungu's role in the GRH scam
The verdict on the Grand Regency scam
The 'secret sale' of GRH
CBK sold GRH in an opaque manner
GRH was under-valued
Lies told by abuga, kimunya & ndungu in the secret sale of GRH
#2 - CBK governor complicit in selling Grand Regency Hotel to protect kibaki's promises
kibaki &/or PNU - I am told - received funds from Libya to fund his 2007 election campaign. In turn he promised to sell them Kenyan assets at a discount & without competitive bidding.
Kudos to Justice Cockar & his team for bringing the truth to light. I bet kibaki is upset that he picked Justice Cockar instead of one the corrupt judges!
Summary of the Cockar Report (from the Sunday Nation)
These assets included the GRH, Kenya Petroleum Refinery & Kenya Pipeline Company.
Well, 2/3 have been completed. Watch this space for the KPC to be sold to the Libyans.
Africa - tough place to do business for those who are not corrupt.
Saturday, January 24, 2009
Friday, January 23, 2009
Where is the report that exonerates him?
Bottomline: Amos was the fall guy for the deal kibz made with the Libyans regarding the Grand Regency Hotel. Amos got his pay while he relaxed - he simply 'stepped aside' & was not suspended. Ultimately, it was a deal made by kibz. All the players in the sale have gone scot-free including ndungu (governor of CBK) & kimunya.
Here is a flowchart of how scandals are solved in Kenya. Courtesy of thinkersroom.
Next on the block... the Libyans will get the Kenya Petroleum Refinery... watch this space. Essar who legitimately won the bid for 50% ownership will be locked out.
The Kenya Pipeline will also be sold to the Libyans for a song. In return the Libyans will grease kibz, his family & cronies among other politicians. Proceeds from the sale of KPC will be used to pay off the banks & Oil Marketers caught in the KPC-Triton web. Of course, the crooks including devani, murungi, okungu, mecha & their cronies will all go scot-free.
Yes, Kenya is cursed. Will there be anything left in the coffers by 2012?
Thursday, January 22, 2009
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
Mind Blowing how much wealth this lot have acquired !!!
The list is headed by Equatorial Guinea President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo with an estimated $65 billion fortune.
For many years now it has been silently rumoured that daniel moi who ruled Kenya for 24 years marking an era that is associated with the worst forms of corruption, was along with his sons the richest man in the country.
Nigeria has six nationals in the top 20 rich-list including one immediate former President Olusegun Obasanjo.
Zimbabwe’s hardline ruler and the man in the news currently, Robert Mugabe is placed at number 8 with an estimated $3billion despite the fact that his country is in the doghouse.
Libyan President Muamar Ghadafi is placed second.
1. Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo (est $65 Billion)
President of Equatorial Guinea since 1979
2. Muammar al-Gaddafi ($56 Billion)
Leader and Guide of the Revolution, The Libyan Leader
3. Dr. Mike Adenuga ($27 Billion)
Dr. Mike Adenuga, Chairman of Globacom, a Telecommunications company
4. Onsi Sawiris ($20 Billion)
Onsi Sawiris, Egptian Businessman who heads Orascom, Telecommunicatons company
5. Mohammed Al Amoudi ($ 9 Billion)
Mohammed Al Amoudi, Ethiopian Business man, Oil, Gas, Mining, Hotels, Agriculture and hospitals
6. Aliko Dangote ($ 4 Billion)
Aliko Dangote, Nigerian Businessman, Dankotes businesses include food processing, cement manufacturing and freight
7. Strive Masiyiwa ($ 3.5 Billion)
Strive Masiyiwa (aka "Bill Gates of Africa") is a Zimbabwean businessman and cellphone pioneer, founding Econet Wireless.
8. Robert Mugabe ($ 3 Billion)
Robert Mugabe, President of Zimbabwe
9. Mohamed Fayed ( $ 3 Billion)
Mohammed Fayed, Eqyptian Businessman
His Business interests include Harrods department store in london and Fulham, an English, Premiership football club
10. Ibru Family ( $ 2.5 Billion)
Hotels and Banking in Africa, Nigerian Businesses
11. Femi Otedola ( $ 2 Billion)
Nigerian Business man, Business interests include Zenon Oil and other Oil Products
12. Yoweri Museveni ($ 1.7 Billion)
Uganda's economy began to grow steadily and poverty levels have dropped by 45% since 1992.
13. Olusegun Obasanjo ( $ 1.3 Billion)
Olusegun Obasanjo, President of Nigeria
14. Anis haggar ( $ 1.3 Billion)
15. Mo Ibrahim ($ 1.2 Billion)
A Sudanese, the founder of Celtel International
16. Arap Moi ( $ 1.2 Billion)
Daniel Toroitich Arap Moi, President of Kenya 1978 - 2002. Corruption ran riot during his reign culminating with the massive Goldenberg scandal.
17. Musa Danjuma (est $ 1.2 Billion)
Musa Danjuma, A Nigerian Businessman, Business Interests include real estate and shipping
18. Patrice Motsepe (est $ 1.2 Billion)
South African entrepreneur, has interests in gold, ferrous metals, base metals, and platinum
19. Madhvani Family (est $ 800 Million)
Roni Madvani, A Ugandan Business man Business interests include Uganda Tourism Board and Hotels
20. Cyril Ramaphosa (est $ 600 Million)
Cyril Ramaphosa South African business man and politician Business interests include Shaduka Holdings, Bidvest Group, MTN Group and SASRIA Limited
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
Saturday, January 17, 2009
Wow... I would have never guessed! So the drop in tourists, lower prices for tea, flowers, depreciation of the KSh vs US$... wow... not a result of the GFC?
And CBK governor was claiming 7% growth for Kenya in 2008. I have not heard from him in a while. Perhaps indigestion after gorging on humble pie?
#2 - Back to donors with a begging bowl... while scams 'exposed' in the past 4 weeks account for KShs 15bn.
- 8bn for the KPC-Triton scam coz govt (aka taxpayers) will bail out KPC.
- 1bn for the NCPB maize theft/scandals.
- 6bn for 'over-billing' for the pipeline extensions/expansion/enhancement - chinese firm implicated.
- Great cartoon in the DN
- Trips to USA for Obama's inauguration
- Other junkets by politicians while in the USA
#3 - Corruption - The next frontier - Chinese & Libyan connections
I am worried about corruption in Kenya but it seems to be going a notch higher with the chinese & libyan firms. Since these firms are state controlled, you might as well give up hope on getting information from the chinese or libyans to fight the scams!
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
Sunday, January 11, 2009
Rwanda is seeking alternates to Kenya for its fuel supplies. Furthermore, some idiots (newspaper journalists, KPC & the always gullible Kenyan public) claimed that the Oil Marketers were exporting fuel meant for local consumption. It turns out that both Uganda & Rwanda faced massive fuel shortfalls thanks to KPC's complicity & idiocy in the theft of fuel from their depots!
Basically, there was not enough fuel for local or export since there was no fuel... despite fake adverts in the Kenyan newspapers about the quantities 'available' or 'pumped'.
And Kenyan newspapers were also compromised or just stupid & they hardly research their business reporting. Even raila & kibz got into the act... blaming 'cartels'... notice how quiet they have been of late? Maybe they are choking on humble pie?
And KPC blamed everyone else... KPLC, Shippers, Oil Marketers, etc
Friday, January 09, 2009
I may not be the #1 fan of Oil Marketers but I prefer competition (free markets) rather than corrupt & inefficient government bureaucrats running the show...
KPC has been feeding the gullible media, some (moronic) Kenyans & Oil Marketers with false information about the levels of fuel stocks in Kenya Oil Storage Facilities (KOSF) as well quantities at their depots & in the pipeline...
Kenyans/government/idiots blamed Oil Marketers for the recent fuel shortages... well, it turns out there was a real shortage because the so-called fuel is missing!!! Yes, KPC can't account for 56,000,000 litres... (no 56 or 560 or 5,600 or 56,000)... worth Kes 7,000,000,000 (Seven Billion)... Kaput... Abracadabra...
No wonder there was a fuel shortage... KPC says it was there... but it is not... so where is it now?
Was it ever there?
Engen (a private Oil Marketer) complained that Triton (politically connected & always favoured by KPC) has not delivered Engen's share of the fuel stocks Engen already paid for... My sources tell me most Oil Marketers are in the same boat... since they had to buy the (non-existent) stocks from Triton due to OTS rules...
So...no wonder there was a shortage!!! And the government blamed/claimed Oil Marketers were 'hoarding'... WTF??? How do you hoard what you don't have!!! (Please remember these are government employees who like hoarding my taxes in their pockets)
Now there are silly proposals to:
- Introduce price controls (bad, bad idea)
- Give NOCK (another inefficient 100% gov't owned firm) the right/guarantee to import 30% of Kenya's fuel requirements rather than compete vs the rest of the importers. What if NOCK negotiates prices that are say a little over market... the difference going to some politician's bank account in Cayman?
Do I smell scandal & corruption if the proposal were to pass? YES.
KPC lied about Fuel Stocks (Missing/Stolen fuel)
Now... it seems some corruption (or incompetence) within KPC meant the stocks were released to Triton without KCB's approval... So Triton sold the stocks... pocketed the cash... and split!!!
So KCB went to court to freeze the assets of Triton... and if KPC does not pony up the cash... then KCB will probably sue KPC...
I still can't believe that some (misguided) Kenyans believe KPC should remain 100% in government hands!
Solution: Sell the Triton stations asap to NOCK (or another buyer) through TRANSPARENT means. Pay off as many debts as possible with the proceeds. Put out an international arrest warrant for the 'owners'. Sack, arrest & charge the chaps who authorised the 'release' of the products. Seize their assets since corruption was likely in this matter.
Start the process to privatize KPC.
Thursday, January 08, 2009
I don't understand the reason (except the 'safe haven' argument) for the strength of the US$... The US gov't (thru the Fed & Treasury & other agencies) will pump (since Aug 2008) in $1,000,000,000,000 (almost 6% of the USA's GDP) into the system by June 2009....
Whereas I do not expect inflation to be a problem since the 'extra' cash will be negated in part by:
- lower interest rates on loans
- lower housing costs
- lower fuel/energy costs
- reduced salaries (loss of jobs or no more increases)
- discounting of merchandise/food
China is a wild card... or the joker?
Please provide your thoughts... and guidance... and ideas...
Wednesday, January 07, 2009
2 of the 3 ferries were out of order at Likoni today... And trust me... the way things are going, I expect one to sink soon... which is bad news for tourism...
- Either privatise KFS which means charging the passengers (or subsidizing the KFS).
- Build a bridge or tunnel asap!!!
Tuesday, January 06, 2009
Well... it turns out that Ryan's estimates will be far closer to the truth... especially with inflation in the 20% region... and this AFTER the state subsidies for maize kicks in...
BTW... How many axles does this 128-tyre monster have?
Do you think the (corrupt) police officers will ask for a 128,000 bribe to let it through?