Blog Archive

Sunday, April 06, 2008

Kenya's economy suffers major hit

Finance minister, amos kimunya, predicts 4% growth. This is in sharp contrast to 7% he predicted in the midst of the clashes in Jan 2008. vs 7% earlier.

kibaki did an excellent job earlier by reducing barriers to economic development during 2002-3. Politically, it is a different story. Economically (& politically) Kenya could become another Zimbabwe.

Due to the political crisis - partly of kibz own making - kibz will skip the important India-Africa trade conference. I believe India is the model African countries need to emulate. India is a large democratic country with diverse cultures, languages, political views & peoples. It was a British colony until 1947 & has or been through all sorts of problems that Africa faces, faced & will face. I think kibz should go to India. It is vital for us as a nation to learn how to improve ourselves.

India has a homegrown (efficient) rail system that Kenya can learn from. Kenya needs to improve its railways. Soon.

India has a robust telecommunications system - compared to other developing nations - by using homegrown technology. Sam Pitroda was one of the architects of the system. Of course, Kenya's thieves-in-charge gave up control of Safaricom to Vodaphone in exchange for a bribe.

Another story of new Indian investment in Kenya. Also an interesting side story on how they are encouraging the growth of Kenyan football.

Kenya needs to negotiate with the Indians & Chinese to secure its position in the supply chain for Tea. Kenya -the world's 2nd largest exporter- faces aggressive Indian, Sri Lankan & Chinese competition in the export market. Tata Tea bought out Tetleys & Kenya must ensure its are not locked out of the UK market.

Kenya needs to get serious. We have a decent port that whose throughput can be doubled - damn the politics - in 5 years. We can expand & improve the railway - a god start with its privatisation - to lower transport costs. We need an airport to handle 10mn passengers by 2010 to accommodate KQ (4mn passengers) among other airlines.

We need severe penalties for breaking laws - and enforcement - that protect businesses from theft, destruction & fraud. We need a powerful ombudsman who can protect Kenyans against powerful government functionaries & politicians.

Instead all we do is related to politics, politics & politics!


Laseur said...

Going the Zimbabwe way ? That's abit farfetched but your analysis is educated...I always check on your blog weekly.Good job!

coldtusker said...

laseur - Thanks.

The possibility of Zim style inflation exists if we continue down the irresponsible path of spending what we do not have.

If you had asked me or 1000 other analysts if Kenya would suffer widespread violence post-elections... we would have said no way... but we were wrong!